Poker Forum > Strategy
Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
jbworldwide:
Yes I think my move was right, I was just wondering if I was in the other position whether I should be calling from now on, or at least considering it properly. I think I prob would have folded there most of the time. :-\
noble1:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on January 13, 2009, 22:31:56 PM ---
commented on this on another thread.
I feel the JK guy is pot committed and has to call. He is flipping against a lot of your range given your shove and stack size. I"m sure he"s not happy to call but feels compelled to.
If player did any thing wrong it was not shoving in the first place.
As it played out...standard small stacks with big blind type hand.
Your move was not bad as you were short stacked and couldn"t wait all day for a better hand (or to be first in). By reraising you are only worried about QQ+ and AK there is a lot of his range that you are beating or flipping with so you have to go with it.
If you did anything wrong, it was thinking that the guy might fold
--- End quote ---
as per swinebag said....
AQ fine to shove , as long as you read him on a wide range - 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo
his odds of 2.73 = 1/3.73*100=26.80% equity so even if he thinks your range is -
88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo
his equity to call is 31% so it is a auto call for a decent player considering blinds and what he has left behind..
but you got all in a 6to4 favourite so well done [just lucked out sir]
Waz1892:
I commented on the original thred before it moved here.....like to know if im working this kind of stuff out correctly?
ok proper intrigued now...3-1 odds (just under)..he has KJ..he must know he is behind a range of an all in re-raise..so wot is the thinking / calculating required.
kj..6 cards to improve...though are the 3 jacks live (thus pair j) to the re-raise all in?..and possilbe already a king out..so maybe only 2 cards to catch?..38 cards left..16% if 6 cards? (6.25-1)
where is NOBLE1 when u need him!!!
Swinebag:
Do not confused between "pot odds" and chances of winning (referred to as equity).
You are talking about your chances of winning here but your calculation is not how you work out your chances of winning here.
firstly when calculating outs (lets say 6 for arguments sake here) you have to take it from unseen cards and not cards in the deck. So there are 48 unseen cards. this does not mean that his odds are 6 in 48 of winning (or 1 in 8 or 7 to 1 - whatever). The odds you worked out Waz were the chances of a winning card hitting "first card out". Of course during the showdown there will be five chances of hitting the winning card so your chances of hitting are greatly increased.
in this particular instance there is also a chance that JK only has 3 outs so this affects the calculation. If it is a coin flip against a lower pair then there is the chance that JK can win if two pair come on the board to counterfeit the smaller pair. There are of course straight and flush possibilities for JK to win.
So.....
all these possibilities of winning (however likely or unlikey) make calculating the chance of winning near impossible
enter our friend....."pokerstove"
this program will work out JKs equity against single hands as well as against a range of hands that could be reshoving against it.
Of course, during an online tournament you haven"t really got time to plug all this in so it comes down to playing around with pokerstove and familiarising yourself with the variables so that you have a good idea of the value of your hand against various hand ranges.
The key calculation that you can make are your "pot odds" which for KJ fella can be worked out as roughly just under 3 to 1. As a guide this can be argued as a call with with any 2 cards let alone the "powerhouse" that is KJ.
noble explains this stuff much better but I hope this helps
noble1:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on January 14, 2009, 16:50:48 PM ---
Do not confused between "pot odds" and chances of winning (referred to as equity).
You are talking about your chances of winning here but your calculation is not how you work out your chances of winning here.
firstly when calculating outs (lets say 6 for arguments sake here) you have to take it from unseen cards and not cards in the deck. So there are 48 unseen cards. this does not mean that his odds are 6 in 48 of winning (or 1 in 8 or 7 to 1 - whatever). The odds you worked out Waz were the chances of a winning card hitting "first card out". Of course during the showdown there will be five chances of hitting the winning card so your chances of hitting are greatly increased.
in this particular instance there is also a chance that JK only has 3 outs so this affects the calculation. If it is a coin flip against a lower pair then there is the chance that JK can win if two pair come on the board to counterfeit the smaller pair. There are of course straight and flush possibilities for JK to win.
So.....
all these possibilities of winning (however likely or unlikey) make calculating the chance of winning near impossible
enter our friend....."pokerstove"
this program will work out JKs equity against single hands as well as against a range of hands that could be reshoving against it.
Of course, during an online tournament you haven"t really got time to plug all this in so it comes down to playing around with pokerstove and familiarising yourself with the variables so that you have a good idea of the value of your hand against various hand ranges.
The key calculation that you can make are your "pot odds" which for KJ fella can be worked out as roughly just under 3 to 1. As a guide this can be argued as a call with with any 2 cards let alone the "powerhouse" that is KJ.
noble explains this stuff much better but I hope this helps
--- End quote ---
that seems fine to me ;D
as per what swinebag says Waz1892 get pokerstove [google it] it is a free download
and every time you play a hand try to start thinking of your opponents possible holdings in ranges [AA KK QQ AK AQ etc thats my range by the way ;D]
when you get pokerstove just post up any questions on ranges to put villians on and equity to call if your not sure... there is plenty of people on APAT who use this stuff and know how it works and who will answer you...
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