Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
How to pick a grand national winner
Swinebag:
Rain will save the clerk watering the course. Going should still be good/ good to soft. The last soft/heavy national was in 2004. Amberleigh house fitted the trends and so did hedgehunter (who was leading but fell at the last)
There is no comparison to the statement "Its a myth that the national is a lottery".
That comment is based on trends, not certainties. Its just that this year, there doesn"t seem to be a single horse without a negative trend for this race and that is rare.
noble1:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on April 02, 2009, 12:58:19 PM ---
My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
--- End quote ---
Butlers Cabin surprised many people by winning the 4 mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007 and then showed this to be no fluke by following up in the Irish National four weeks later. The Irish National is traditionally a great Aintree trial and he was a very game winner of the Irish race in 2007 so because he is french bred does not put me off.
He made a very encouraging run at Cheltenham imo where he finished just over eight lengths behind Character Building in the Kim Muir. This was a marked improvement on the rest of his recent form and he looks to be peaking at just the right time for Aintree,this with that in 08 he was going along nicely when coming to grief at Bechers second time round plus he was in poor form leading into 08 ,i think he has a far better chance this year.
Honeybadg:
Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!
Just as I had happily ruled it out!
L
Honeybadg:
--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on April 02, 2009, 12:58:19 PM ---
My four picks
1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster
of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.
I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons
My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.
I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!
--- End quote ---
I am going on
1. Rambling Minster
2. Parson"s Legacy
3. L"Ami
4. Irish Invader
L
noble1:
--- Quote from: Honeybadg on April 02, 2009, 16:31:21 PM ---
Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!
Just as I had happily ruled it out!
L
--- End quote ---
true true lol lol but i got 23 on betfair 12 weeks ago so i"m happy :) so him being favourite now is a pleasant surprise..
2009-01-04 betfair trading throughout day
23
22
23
22
21
as for value and with a good chance Darkness has my money on..ever since the 2006 Sun Alliance Chase when he finished 17lengths third to a very good horse Star De Mohaison i,ve followed his progress..there was a stamina look about him then but injury saw him mothballed for 2 and a half years but has come back this season recording a nice win at Newbury in february achieving a RPR of 156, that and Charlie Egerton has always aimed Darkness for the GN since his comeback appeals to me as this trainer went close with MELEY MOSS a few years ago so makes this irresistible for me not to back ...
his trading on betfair on that day 2009-02-28 after newbury win looked like this -
64 closing
59
54
59
54
45
47
45
41
49
54
74
69
74
79
84
89 opening
since then his price up to about week ago came into 40,s and held steady but in the last week has come in 20 points,i took 74 on him with a sneeky 25 quid on to win , i have since layed back out at 22 so its win win for me here...and if the ground is on the good side i can see his price come in a tad more to around 17 16 ish on betfair so there may still a squeak of value in him if you can get 20 22 off the highstreet bookies...
i"ll put my case for cornish sett and hear the echo later , time to walk the dogs ;D
gla in your national picks................
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