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How to pick a grand national winner

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noble1:
i share your concern also Rob but this season is no falls and 1 unseated rider [watched it , duff jockey lol] the trend boys luv the no falls stat but i prefer the no falls in the current season..
Also mouse morris had stated he would be aimed at this years national hence he campaigned Hear the Echo over hurdles in his first 3 races back , a little trainers trick trying to protect the horses handicap and in his last prep run at gowran in a chase he unseated the jockey so i"m not overly concerned and expect echo to be on song...
Also if you like trends 5 of the last 6 winners of the grand national ran over hurdles the season they won the national,,,the sneeky trainers protecting there horses handicap trend  ;D

for me the key races to look at in the horses past form for the GN are -
the sun alliance - i look for a horse which has ran previously in its past in this,it tends to throw up potential winners,,comply or die being the last who ran in this race in 2005
the irish national
the welsh national
the topham chase
the last year race of the national should always be looked at - of the previous recent fallers in this that go on to win the next year are Slver Birch , Hedgehunter and Red Maruader .. non fallers are Amberleigh House who finished 3rd in 2003 and won in 04.....

so the no falls trend is a bit of a no no for me...just no falls in the current is ok for my picking of donkeys.. ;D
also horses that finish in the top 6 the previous national tend to have a gr8 chance of placing in the next year .. maybe some each way value there.....

bigredders:

--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on April 02, 2009, 22:34:46 PM ---
Hear the echo nearly made it onto my shortlist, even at 11st5. I scratched it when I saw it had fallen/unseated rider 5 times in its career.

good value on it though noble

--- End quote ---


could always back it on vc bet....they do money back in a free bet if your horse falls/unseats

did it last year, had one fall got a tenner back, stuck it on a 4-1 shot next day, which then won

top value imo

Swinebag:
good points noble1. As I said before.....great value there!!

nosey-p:
Ok, talking over give me one horse to win the National

0ffshore Account     each way

bigredders:
im on darkness, state of play and knowhere

so there are three to rule out :D

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