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AK Turn Spot

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Marty719:
This is not my hand - picked it up from boards.ie, but I figured it was an interesting spot and figured I"d throw it up here to find what ppl thot of it!!  



"ve discussed this hand with a few people already, but it"s still bugging me so I figured id put it up here.

Anyway, its about 1-2 weeks ago in the Fitz, im sitting on 400-500 or so, done nothing out of line, raised a fair bit, generally in position. Nothing special really.

Anyway, the hand. UTG limps, he"s terrible, total spewbox. I"ve played with him before in tournies and i"ve called him down very light before.

The CO limps, he has me covered and has been playing ABC all night long, has shown down the goods. Never played with him before.

I pick up AKc OTB and make it 10 to go. Everyone else folds, both call.

Flop comes K83r. Both of them check, I check also as I want the fish to bluff the turn and the board is very dry so there is not really a lot to be worried about.

Turn comes a 9, completing the rainbow. Both check again, I bet 27, fish calls. CO then quickly announces pot and chucks 6 25"s into the pot.

What to do now? And what do people think of the flop check? Looking back I pretty much hate it as its best to just bet bet bet in the Fitz.

Paulie_D:
I really don"t see how you can call here.

You state that the CO has "been playing ABC all night long, has shown down the goods." At the very least he"s two-paired or setted and doesn"t want to get out-drawn.

I absolutely hate the flop check...as you say, the Fitz is bet, bet bet, and you can"t define any villains hand unless you lead out on the perfect flop for you.

I"d have lead out for 20 on the flop and evaluate.

coprey:
I think hero might have to consider he is behind at this point. Against a solid player who has up to now always shown the goods I might consider folding and waiting for a better spot. With your preflop raise villain can put you on a hand like AK, even though you have been raising regularly. I think it is unlikely he is playing with anything less than two pair. The flop check isnt so bad but in the Fitz its usually best to bet out as soon as you hit, because the chances are youre gonna get called with less. I assume this is a 1/2 game. Had the weak player made this raise the answer would be different. ps Im not much of a cash player, so would be interested in what others think.

lukybugur:
Given info on UTG, this is likely to be an elaborate squeeze play by CO, but it"s probably gonna cost you most of your stack to find out for sure. If you call, you have to consider going all the way with it. If stakes are 1/2, folding will save you 60BBs (possibly 250BBs) so it has to be an option. 84 in the pot before CO quickly throws in 125 ... hmmm.

I don"t mind the Check on the Flop, for the reasons stated - Hero wants them to hit a bit of something and stack off to their pretty well disguised TPTK. With such a show of strength now tho, I"d be hoping to showdown as cheaply as possible. CO might think twice about re-firing a pot bet if you (and maybe UTG) call. You have position and should be able to get a read from CO (body language, bet size, whatever) when he acts on the River.

If UTG calls the Turn bet too, I"d suspect I"m behind. I"d call only a VERY cheap value bet from UTG or CO on River unless you improve to two pair / trips, in which case I"d be willing to get my stack in.

* EDIT *
Anyone who wants to continue in this hand MUST think they"re ahead at this point. Some might make an argument for re-raising / shoving on the Turn if you can put CO on hands like TT, JJ or QQ. I suspect that hands like that will be able to lay them down to a re-raise and think that most profit can be made by Flat Calling, then Calling a Value Bet / Value Betting the River.

I might be totally wrong tho ...

kinboshi:

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