Poker Forum > Strategy
STT End Game Strategy
AMRN:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 22, 2010, 07:40:44 AM ---
u got the chip counts right AMRN ? 13500 chips in play in std 9 handed turbo..
--- End quote ---
13500 is correct. 9 x 1500 = 13500
--- Quote ---
Anyhows if i stick the extra on , this what i think -
hand 1 only push - 88+ ATs+ AJo+
hand 2 only push - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo hand 2 i give a push range of around 14to15% as i think u have far more fold equity..
hand1 i added an extra 1000 chips to the button , if he is a reg i"d expect him to raise around 40% , your equity is to high to push to wide unless u have a good idea of villains call range here..if he is a reg then i"d expect him to call with about 1/2 this range so A3o is a NO NO imho.. Even if i add no chips for hand1 to u or villain i"d still expect BTT to open around 40% of his range but with your equity the push range is still narrow imo around 7%
A3o versus a 20% call range [so he folds 50% of range]
Ac3s - 41.288%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 58.712%
so if he is playing correctly [imo] then opening his top 40% would not be to surprising to see 7out of 10 raises on the button short handed.
--- End quote ---
Example 1 was the real hand that I played. I figured that Button was raising most hands here - possibly ALL hands (this is the first hand we play since bubble burst). Therefore, I figure that if I shove, he will fold a lot of the time, and if he calls, A3 is ahead of much of his calling range (looking at calls he made in previous hands BEFORE bubble burst). I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
I created Example 2 to try and figure out what the dynamics of the exact same hand would be if the third guy in the equation was micro stacked..... ie does the ladder become more important when 2nd place is so much more tangible and likely.
noble1:
in example 2 if he is a reg [plays nearly correctly :)] then if u push your fold equity is enormous , if u think he calls light even with the micro stack then obv fold..All on the read of his ability, i can see your logic for hand1 but i think u over estimate your FE here, your reads of his 3 hands showndown suggest he is raising correctly , the 78s call maybe dubious but without knowing odds/how he"d read vilain etc then i think expecting him to call the top 20% is fair..If u ICM it i"ll be very surprised if A3o is good enough to push.. plugged it in holdem resource for a quick view and it was pretty near.
Have a tinker - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html
without no hard info on his call range i"d err on the tight side and would want to push a better ace kicker, there is just to many in his range..
Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000
= 12500 :)
AMRN:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 22, 2010, 10:32:24 AM ---
Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000
= 12500 :)
--- End quote ---
good point - looks like I lost 1000 in the rounding :)
noble1:
--- Quote ---I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
--- End quote ---
finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection :) the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..
If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%
the 3.2% extra will help long term..
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 22, 2010, 13:50:28 PM ---
--- Quote ---I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
--- End quote ---
finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection :) the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..
If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%
the 3.2% extra will help long term..
--- End quote ---
He"s raising 70% of his hands, so I don"t think he"s going to call half his stack off half the time.
I think the most likely option is that he"ll fold, but even if he doesn"t I"d rather that I was the slight favourite and not him.
If he"s raised 7 out of the last 10, what range of hands are you waiting for to shove on him?
Seems a bit tight to fold Ace rag given how likely it is to be ahead.
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