Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham festival
monkeyman:
The more I look at it, the more the Champion Hurdle gives me a headache. The only horse declared who can safely be ruled out is Raise Your Heart who will probably be beaten 50-60 lengths.
Jumbo Rio is far from the worst 100-1 shot I"ve ever seen. He"d have won a french Grade 1 hurdle in November had it not been for the jockey making a pig"s ear of things on the run in. Apart from that, he"s been running against all the best horses in Ireland and has never been beaten far over there. The main inponderable when assessing his form is that he won"t have run in a race run at the pace of the Champion Hurdle and he certainly won"t have run on ground like he is going to encounter on tuesday, but I see these as reasons why he might possibly show improved form. He raced mainly at 10-12 furlongs on the flat and in most of his race reports there is a comment about him running on strongly at the end of the race. In last year"s Triumph Hurdle he was prominent most of the way, led 2 out then faded on the run in. However, in his next run he won the equivalent race at the Punchestown festival, this time by being held-up way off the pace. In this year"s Champion there are more hold-up horses than those who are likely to force the pace (Celestial Halo,Zaynar) which could potentially lead to traffic problems even in a relatively small field. However, as there is not much between most of the runners, it may be worth risking a small interest on a consistent young horse who demonstrated his best form coming from off the pace in a championship race and will for the first time be able to try these tactics in a lightning quick race on good ground. Might be worth a couple of quid on value grounds alone.
monkeyman:
I"ve just paid a visit to my local Laddies and have placed a five horse each way multiple which covers every combination of trebles and upwards. The five selections are:
1) Somersby in the Arkle Chase at 9-2. Only 1.5 lengths behind Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle, the best jumper of a fence in the race and with proven graded chase form in the book I think he"ll win and won"t hear of him being out of the first 3.
2) Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle at 4-1. 3 out of 3 over hurdles including 2 graded wins around Cheltenham, one over 3 miles. There are likely to be horses who perhaps haven"t got the same form under their belts, Willie Mullins" Enterprise Park springs to mind, who show apparently improved form trying 3 miles for the first time, but Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and I"d be surprised if he wasn"t at least placed.
3)Peddlers Cross in the Neptune Investment Novice hurdle at 8-1. Both starts over hurdles were at 2 miles and both were won convincingly, the second a grade 2 at Haydock by 16 lengths. Is likely to run in this race rather than against Dunguib in the Supreme Novices hurdle, but as a point to point winner, I don"t expect the step up in trip to be a problem. Even if I"ve guessed his intended target wrong, I"ve got non-runner no bet on all selections, so I think I"ve got a very reasonable price.
4) Sericina in the Foxhunters chase at 10-1. Multiple point to point winner who won her only start under rules by 7 lengths. Will be trained by Paul Nicholls after this race whatever the result and for that reason alone I think the double figure price represents very good value.
5) Deep Purple in the Ryanair chase at 20-1. Two high quality runs earlier in the season over 2.5 and 3 miles and was then pulled up because of bleeding in the King George. Still not 100% if he"ll run, but the non-runner no bet concession means that if he does line up, I believe I"ll have a huge price about the best horse in the race.
Narrowly missing the cut for the bet was a horse in the champion bumper, but I"ll come back to that one later in the week.
smileriraq:
cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable
monkeyman:
--- Quote from: smileriraq on March 14, 2010, 19:28:14 PM ---
cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable
--- End quote ---
From a punting perspective I think thursday is the most difficult day of the lot, but I"ll try and work my way through the form on the Racing Post website on wednesday night and post my opinions on here so you"ve got a few horses names to work with.
Don"t go making any big spending plans on the basis of my tips. If I was that good, I wouldn"t be working in a call centre!
smileriraq:
cheers fella muchos appreciated
tbh im going for the experience of it ive set aside money to put on the Gee Gees so if i lose it all fine if i win then my son can have food for the rest of the month (no pressure :) )
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page
[*] Previous page
Go to full version