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Cheltenham festival

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ThinkerJE:

--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on March 15, 2010, 21:58:14 PM ---
well I"ve gone for.....

1.30 - no selection. this will be my best result in this race for 8 years

BETFRED are refunding all losing bets in this race Rob, so it will still be your best result and you are on a freeroll!!!

2.05 - riverside theatre
2.40 - the package
3.20 - kyber kim
4.00 - garde champetre
4.40 - no selection

--- End quote ---

monkeyman:
Here we go. For the first time this, week below is a complete run down of my thoughts for the Cheltenham racing to follow .I make no claims to being the world"s greatest punter, but at least you"ll see more sense in this post than you"ll hear through John McCrirrick"s entire career. If nothing else, it will give you plenty of ammunition if you feel like putting any abusive messages on my blog.

1.30. Supreme Novices Hurdle. Despite the numbers, this isn"t the most competitive race of the festival and can be narrowed down to 2 horses. Dunguib wouldn"t surprise me if he won by 10 lengths, but there are sufficient doubts about him to rule out backing him at his current price. Paddy Power"s offer to return all losing singles on other horses if Dunguib wins makes this a no-brainer; back Get Me Out of Here with Paddy Power. Easy really.

2.05. Arkle Chase. Somersby got very close to Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and has been very impressive over fences this year. 4-1 may not represent huge value, but I think he"s the best horse in the race so I"m looking no further. If you fancy something a little more fruity, try Mad Max at 25-1. An absolutely immense horse, he was always going to be better over fences than hurdles and he was pretty good at that. His first attempt over the larger obstacles was at Kempton, which I don"t think would have been his ideal course, and resulted in a victory. His second race was in a grade 2 at Doncaster when he finished 3rd. The winner was Woolcombe Folly (also 25-1 in this race), a 147 rated hurdler who was carrying 7 lbs less. Mad Max was only beaten by 4 lengths, so bearing the weight concession in mind, he emerges as the best performer from that race.  

2.40. William Hill Handicap Chase. On the face of it a very competitive race. This normally goes to a horse carrying less than 11st and The Package has been the subject of substantial backing, but The Tother One is weighted to reverse the form of their meeting here in December. Bensalem has also proved popular, but his jumping has been suspect and I"d be concerned about backing him at 4 times his current price. I like the look of Ogee. Winner of 3 of his 4 chases, his only defeat came in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices chase at Kempton over christmas. Crucially, his hurdle rating was 143 and he is racing here off 137, so he could be well treated, although he will have the additional burden of my money.

3.20. Champion Hurdle. Ultra competitive and I won"t decide who to back until I"ve seen the prices just before the off. I may be tempted by Jumbo Rio if he can still be backed at a treble-figure price, but at 9-2 favourite Go Native has started to look like value.

4.00. Cross Country Chase. Garde Champetre is the best horse in this race and has the best rider of this course in Nina Carberry. However, 16-1 about such a classy, versatile horse as Monkerhostin  is too big and I will be very tempted.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Voler La Vedette is the best horse in the race and I see no reason to look any further even at 7-4. Simplez

janc:
Just to make it interesting
punjabi 8/1 on betfair
and a small ew on double dizzy in the cross country 40/1 and 5.5/1 the place

Ant1966:
1.30 Get me out of here.
2.05 Somersby
2.40 The package
3.20 Punjabi

Not going to get you rich and i hate backing short price horses at the festival,but these are my boks for 2mor.

bigredders:
Tuesday"s thoughts and bets.... Can"t wait!

Supreme - I have raving about Oscar Whisky since winning his last race, giving 6lb to a decently regarded horse and not even breaking into a sweat. I think he is the value against Dunguib, which will probably win, but with Paddy Power going money back if he does could just never back it, esp at those odds in such a competitive field. Could not have Menorah on my mind after being beaten by Lush Life, stablemate of Oscar Whisky. Look out for Dan Breen at a big price.

Arkle - After much consideration and mind changing i think that Somersby won"t win tommorow. I just think that the trip is too short. This horse will win a gold cup in time. I have also decided that it is such an open race. Captain Cee Bee is a strong favourite (still regretting not backing this last year!) and for that reason Sizing Europe is discarded (i feel that ccb had the beating in their last match up before his fall) i like the look of Riverside Theatre and looks a real jumper in the making. I think that at small small stakes this is my selection but not at all confident. Look out for Mad Max and Kangaroo Court at big prices.

Will Hill Chase - Although Benselem has claims and you have to fear The Package just because it is a Pipe horse i think Character Building has a big chance. He seems to fit all the trends for the race and is a couple of points bigger in the betting than he should be because of a slightly unfashionable Northern stable. Although it goes against all the trends i think a couple of quid E/W on Joe Lively could give you a good run. He absolutely loves running at Cheltenham and has some impressive form there.

Champion Hurdle - The more i look at the race, the more open it becomes. If Go Native was an E/W price i would be steaming in, but i am very wary of betting on the nose in such an open race as this. Having had Celestial Halo as my best bet last year (that still hurts!) i think he has a chance in this. You can"t discount Punjabi as they think he is a Spring horse. Twiston Davies is very bullish on the chances of Kyber Kim and woulding discount Solwhit either. The two i wouldn"t be backing are the 2 Henderson horses. Binocular for obvious reasons and Zaynar because i think he is more of a stayer. After all that i am going for Starluck E/W. Another that is a bigger price because of an unfashionable stable, he has the class, the speed and the jockey. I just hope he doesn"t get outstayed!

X country - Garde Champetre. Best jockey, best course form, best horse. Weight doesn"t really matter in these kind of races. That is all! ;D

David Nicholson - Two horse race in my opinion. Although i respect Voler La Vedette i think Quevega will win this well. I don"t think Mullins would send this over if she wasn"t A1, therefore she is a confident choice.

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