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How would you have played this?

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TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: noble1 on June 04, 2010, 04:26:13 AM ---

i didnt post this to suggest the situations were comparable , i hoped that it would point out that being able to hand read at any level is a big advantage..[as per video a 2+2er std tag over calls in sb and then check raises rainbow flop - 663 trying to rep what ?]

--- End quote ---


Fair enough and thanks I enjoyed the vid and admit, I did"nt pick up on the point you were making.


--- Quote from: noble1 ---
You point out that going all in on the flop is not good , i"m not to sure why u get the impression that any1 in the thread advocates pushing the flop?
--- End quote ---


This is just plain pedantic, I did"nt say a flop ai was suggested but, maybe the sentence reads better this way.....

There is a contradiction though, if we raise ai the flop, or turn as suggested..

Also, in the op. Mikey says.....

Flop is J 9 3 rainbow, the blinds check and villain raises to $5.75, I think about re popping but just call,

Again we can be pedantic and say, thats not suggesting an ai raise, but can we ever fold if we do raise the flop? imho raise folding is total spew.


--- Quote from: noble1 ---
The turn yes , but based on if mikey thinks villain will call with worse...
You mention snapper in your bullet points
--- Quote ---but we do protect against the unlikely outdraw.
--- End quote ---
if there is a turn all in raise .. In mikeys situation villain overbets the turn so there is no need to protect he has bet it for us , mikey would have the option to protect if villain checked to him ..

Mikey the turn all in is high variance as snapper points out if your reads on villain hand ranges are way off the mark , in this situation the board texture [along with your reads of villain betting habits] gives him such a larger range of hands and bluffs that u are beating [plus a pot size of $28.50 on the turn] that if u go all in [approx $60] villain has to have hands that beat u approx 33%+ of the time in his range for the all in to be unprofitable , because very rarely does a 25c/50c player properly balance then especially against this villain would i think that his 2 barreling oop range can be/is easily 70%+ total bol##cks that u are beating  .. I hope u see the merits of calling the turn as well as thinking that the shove was optimal...

--- End quote ---


I don"t suggest betting/raising for protection, in fact, I don"t suggest betting/raising at all. I make the point that there is potential protection benefit to the betting/raising option.


On the turn, we are very much in a "way ahead way behind scenario", the sole reasoning for us getting here in a big pot with one pair has been based on a read that the villain is "overly aggressive". His range includes....

hands that crush us, overpair, two pair, trips, boats,
Hands we crush, tpwk, second pair, random small pp"s that he"s overvalued.
Total air

There is absolutely no reason to think villain will slow down, and from my experience, he"s more likely to slow down when he has a hand and will continue to fire with his air. Raising will dilute his range by folding out the air hands and possibly some weak made hands and this is not good for us. So, if we flat the turn $15 the pot is $43.50 and we have $44.75 behind, this gives the villain a fold equity carrot and any river bet will pot commit his weaker hands. The monies are all going in but versus his turn betting range not his turn bet call range.

noble1:

--- Quote from: TheSnapper on June 04, 2010, 14:09:02 PM ---

On the turn, we are very much in a "way ahead way behind scenario", the sole reasoning for us getting here in a big pot with one pair has been based on a read that the villain is "overly aggressive". His range includes....

hands that crush us, overpair, two pair, trips, boats,
Hands we crush, tpwk, second pair, random small pp"s that he"s overvalued.
Total air

There is absolutely no reason to think villain will slow down, and from my experience, he"s more likely to slow down when he has a hand and will continue to fire with his air. Raising will dilute his range by folding out the air hands and possibly some weak made hands and this is not good for us. So, if we flat the turn $15 the pot is $43.50 and we have $44.75 behind, this gives the villain a fold equity carrot and any river bet will pot commit his weaker hands. The monies are all going in but versus his turn betting range not his turn bet call range.

--- End quote ---


Although i dont agree with u in thinking that villain bets $5.75 into a $2 pot after 2 checks if he limped KK or J9 or even  bet his set quite so much over pot after limping , lets have a look at the combos/numbers

AJ - 6
KJ - 8
QJ - 8
TJ - 8
J9 - 6
TT - 6
A9 - 9
JJ - 1
99 - 3
33 - 1
KK - 6
QQ - 6
KQ - 16 the only total air hand i"ve added
QT - 16
34 - 8

villain hands in red calls turn all in only with over pairs,2pair,sets and trips and wins - 31 combos [we"ll ignore some of the re-draws that mikey has]
31x60 = 1860

mikey risks $60 to win $28.5 and only villain folds all hands that mikey beats
71x28.5= 2023.5

6x draws
so a gain of $163.5

if we read that villain calls KJ out of Jx range , lets do some rounding up for villain , out of another 8 combos he wins 1 then the figures are -
lose 32x60= 1920
win 63x28.50=1795.5 plus 7x88.5=619.5  = 2415

so a gain of $495

the turn all in imho is defintely +ev even more so if we add QT say to villains call range , i"ll let u guys do the numbers to give each all in a $ value :) i cant be arsed lol

Its a cash game and unlike in mtts where passing even marginal +ev plays is not mistake with all the survival stuff to be factored in etc etc , in cash every +ev edge should be taken...
I"m not quite in agreement with the limping ranges we give villain as in my experience limping ranges in no limit ring games are way wider than no limit mtt limping ranges , meh for last 2 hours out of interest i"ve had 3 sites opened up across 3 monitors 8 tables each screen of 25c/50c and in around 3000 hands i"ve seen no limping big pairs etc or any big over betting flops with strong holdings multi-way , i"ve seen some spewy stuff though lol lol  so anyone 1/2 decent thinking about moving up or down to 25c/50c then do so and may the force be with u ..  :)

TheSnapper:
Nice post and points well made Noble1. Just a quick reply before I head off for the weekend and I"ll get back to this on monday.

First thing I notice, you don"t include A3 in villains range? and of course 44-88,TT. We have a strong read that villain overvalues.

As far as the +ev thing, my point is not that raising the turn is -ev, but that flatting yields >ev over the two remaining streets.

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