Poker Forum > Strategy
what do u think?
WYoung83:
--- Quote from: LongshanksED on June 09, 2010, 18:00:22 PM ---
As played i would have to fold and hate myself for it. Bit then again alot of ifs and buts due to level of bankroll etc
--- End quote ---
This should never be a factor while in the middle of a hand, and if it is then you are playing to high for your roll. Even the best players like Ivey and Antonius dont think of it as money when they are playing ( i have read interviews with them and all they see while playing, are chips with numbers and not actually $$ values)
TheSnapper:
Its high stakes and likely a top standard of adjusting and hand reading, Gameflow is a huge factor so very wide ranges and most likely, lots of factors we can"t possibly capture in a HH review.
Villain likely 3 bets his nut hands (unlikely to slowplay given history) and some hands that don"t quite make his calling range.
So his flatting range is something like, 22-TT, TJs+,QJs+,KQs,AJo,KQo.
On the Flop. Villain is oop so he is less likely to float light though he may feel comfortable enough versus hero to do so sometimes. Its high stakes so unlikely to play fit or fold.
22 & 66, again are unlikely to slowplay given history, and of the broadway hands, any pair or backdoor straight or flush & combo type hands are more likely to continue.
That's, AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,ATs,KQs,KcJc,KdJd,KsJs,KcTc,KdTd,KsTs,QcJc,QdJd,QsJs,QcTc,QdTd,QsTs,JcTc,JdTd,JsTs,KQo,
TT-77,55-33.
Turn is checked through so no change to the villains range at the river. Betting the turn will further narrow villains range, balances hero"s barrelling range and makes the river easier to play.
Villain weak leads the river, he's unlikely to do this with his air or showdown value hands, leaving TT-99 more likely.
Villain needs to be bluffing 45% for a call to break even. Is this an elaborate weak lead bluff reraise 45% of the time, my at least 3 poker levels below these guys brain says no way.
WYoung83:
Read the hand a few more times and Villain cant possibly value bet a hand worse than aces, that is a fact if he is a good player. back doors got there by the river and there is a chance he has complete airball. But it would be a brave call with AA.
manchestercarl:
Given the history Villains calling range is huge on the flop.
Hero"s bet looks like a continuation bet, so given stacks it is more than possible Villan is floating.
Hero"s check on the turn, puts Villain in a really tricky situation, especially if Villan was floating. Also Villain still has no real idea of Hero"s range or hand. Given stack sizes, if Villain now bets, and faces a check-raise push, he will probably have to lay down anything less than 2 pair.
At this stage Villan checks and in effect takes control of the pot and the hand.
On the river Hero still only has one pair so when villain leads Hero should be calling whist he still has show-down value, so Hero"s raise is awful.
Villain has owned Hero thoughout the hand. Given history, and Hero"s stack size, Villain is surely expecting Hero will call, so the overshove only makes sense with a hand that is beating Aces.
Having said all of this I"m still none the wiser as to Villains hand.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: manchestercarl on June 10, 2010, 09:58:36 AM ---
Villain has owned Hero thoughout the hand. Given history, and Hero"s stack size, Villain is surely expecting Hero will call, so the overshove only makes sense with a hand that is beating Aces.
--- End quote ---
^This^
--- Quote from: manchestercarl on June 10, 2010, 09:58:36 AM ---
On the river Hero still only has one pair so when villain leads Hero should be calling whist he still has show-down value, so Hero"s raise is awful.
--- End quote ---
...but especially ^this^!!
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