Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012
noble1:
--- Quote from: nosey-p on January 23, 2011, 08:57:30 AM ---
Not had a bet now for about 3 month, waiting for the flat season
--- End quote ---
don"t blame u nos , but the Cheltenham Festival is looming and i"ve got to warm up for it :)
i"ve been looking at the trends and seeming as i"ve got my feet up today i"ll post up some of the key pointers that i look at for some ante-post bets and closer to the day when ground conditions are known...
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Experience of large fields is a big plus, the ground if good or faster suits the flat bred which came in handy when i backed Arcalis back in 05 at 25"s [he won at 20/1] Marcel was the hot pot favourite that year, he had never won in a big field, he favoured a bit of cut and he had way to much racing throughout the year, he lost by miles and the bookies thanked [laughing there privates off] all the mugs/tipsters who backed it heavy, so check out lightly raced types, no more than 4 or 5 races that racing season at most.. If the going good to soft or softer forget the flat breds, still look out for lightly raced types who have won in a field of at least 12+ runners, if you see comments in the results as u comb through the form such as ""impressive"" ""shaken up to lead"" ""eased down to win"" ""driven out"" etc then try to find the race on video at sporting life or at the races or the racing post if u have a subscription and check out the horse with your own peepers, u cannot beat good old fashioned hard work when whittling down a shortlist... 5 and 6 year olds have a fantastic record in the Supreme Novice so strike a line through anything younger or older [around 32 of the last 36 supremes have been won by a 5 or 6 year old]
Short list all horses that have a top 3 finish last time out prior to Cheltenham and of course note any irish trained horse lol :) , the canny irish have a good recent record, Ebaziyan back in 07 at 40/1 need i say more? :) only the 2 races prior, 1st lto and a 2nd in big fields in conditions that matched the going at Cheltenham that day [soft], Amaretto Rose was the hot pot going off at 2/1 :o that day, who the fu#k in there right mind backs a english trained 2/1 shot in a competitive race like this and makes money? Although his form looked good for some reason punters overlooked the fact he was a hold up type [and wasn"t irish :)], so my next titbit of info when combing through the form is to favour the handy types [in touch, tracked leaders in previous races] as the Supreme is a fast run race and it pays to be on a horse that can keep up with the pace setters at the very least,[so no worse than mid division types] so if u see held up in the form description one to many times for a Supreme candidate then strike a line through it :)
Captain Cee Bee was a recent glitch in the record for 5and6 year olds, CB was a 7yo but it was irish and owned by JP McManus and backed heavy from 12"s to 17/2, so no real shock there :) but by and large 5or6 year olds win it but dont be averse to having a saver if one of JP"s horses gets stuck into or is fancied... :)
Sausalito Bay way back in 2000 beat Best Mate on good ground [i was on at 16"s :)] flat bred, taken from Ian Baldings yard to Noel Meade , 2 outings over hurdles won them both, so in a nutshell do your homework for each race is what i advise....
I hope this helps someone out, sorry for the mish mash writing, i just wrote it quick as things came back to me, my memory gets like that as i get older lol lol :)
I"ll try to go through the other races as Cheltenham looms up and hopefully as a collective we met pick out some juicy priced winners.....
jacklevel06:
Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.
noble1:
--- Quote from: jacklevel06 on January 23, 2011, 18:57:24 PM ---
Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.
--- End quote ---
start one up by all means, for now though i"ll post up some pointers to each race that maybe some may benefit from..
upto now i"ve just backed one ante-post, Oscar Whisky for the world hurdle, it will be tough to beat Big Bucks but after Oscar W"s race at Cheltenham on new year day it looked to me as though he has improved... With Henderson having Binocular for the Champion Hurdle, i think Oscar W will be aimed at the World Hurdle as the extra distance looks to be the key.. 2 miles in the champion hurdle against the likes of Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly seems a tall order imho so 3 miles seems the logical choice given the display over 21 furlongs Oscar W gave on new year and if he does enter the upcoming welsh champion hurdle [over 2 miles] then if defeated by Peddlers or Binocular then i"d expect Henderson to aim Whiskey at the world hurdle... Meh i just don"t think [imho] that Oscar Whiskey has the speed to beat Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross or Hurricane Fly, maybe even Overturn would be quicker over 2miles if the ground is on the good side....
Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
a really good chance to find a winner, on the day shortlist all the horses who opens priced 10/1 or less, put a line through the rest, also put a line through the favourite and your shortlist will be mostly down to 3 to 5 horses...
browse through the last 6 runnings -
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497501&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473172&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
Kalahari King and Tartak opened at 11"s
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=447770&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=422747&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398283&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=366075&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
fine tune the shortlist by favoring horses that finished first or second last time out, french bred and irish bred have a good record which will help in pin pointing a horse from the shortlist also.. look and go back through there hurdle form and favour those with ratings of 142+... favour horses that have had 4 or 5 chase races experience, Tatenen, Noland and Clopf are recent examples that having just the 2or3 chase races prior experience can be a factor against them in this fast paced race [over stiff fences]...
hopefully the above will help in finding the winner :)
Chipaccrual:
Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase
Oh, and nice thread guys. ;)
noble1:
Supreme Novice 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfxF7G6NMJk[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-zHCIvXPsk[/youtube]
Arkle Chase 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb95QDrGcgA[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY148_CGlb4[/youtube]
see above Leigh you tube code is
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