Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012
Chipaccrual:
LOL, Noble makes Youtube coding work. Anything is possible. :D
noble1:
Right on to the next race, a easy usually big most years field handicap, getting a shortlist to a manageable size requires the help of the trends brigade again....
Festival Handicap Chase [William Hill Trophy]
Put a line through any horse carrying 10-13 or more, put a line through any horse carrying less than 10-2.. any horse 11 years or older then put a line through it... last time out wins are a plus... put a line through the favourite, only 2 have won in the last 16 years 2009 and 1994.... irish bred horses have a great recent record also - 8 OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS [just doing these pointers would of given Chief Dan George last year]
Race style wise i tend to look for off the pace types for this race,good tactical speed and are capable of tracking the leaders, so when going through the form i look for comments in the previous race descriptions such as ""held up in touch"" ""shaken up"" ""rallied"" , this with a good run or a win is a good pointer, then its a case of looking back through videos just to see for yourself...
Doing the above will give a very short manageable list and hopefully a better chance of selecting the winner in what is usually a 20+ runner race....
the last 10 runnings [no 2001, foot and mouth]
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499095&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474811&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449560&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424593&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400333&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374157&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=345219&r_date=2004-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=327630&r_date=2003-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=311635&r_date=2002-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276855&r_date=2000-03-14&popup=yes
noble1:
William Hill Handicap
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4RYEhvf4IM[/youtube]
noble1:
Wow now onto what looks will be a very high class Champion hurdle, imho 2008 2009 were a tad sub-par, Binocular although not at his best leading upto the race in 2010, won in convincing style...
Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy [a few handy pointers]
wins by a 5 year old are rare, Katchit was a blip in 2008 as he was the first 5yo to win since See You Then back in 85, and Katchit was no where near to being in the same league as See You Then [for those that can remember this triple winner]...... only 3 horses since 1951 have been older than 8 that have won... so in a nutshell concentrate on 6 to 8 year olds......
last time out winners have won the last 23 of the last 27 runnings of this race, Punjabi in 2009 had finished 3rd last time out. Hardy Eustace 2nd last time out in 2004 are 2 of the blips in the last 10 runnings....
Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12, although they have not won the last 3 runnings...
8 of the last 10 runnings have be won by French bred [3 times] Irish bred [5 times]....
good previous years Cheltenham festival form [1st,2nd] is a strong trend, likewise a previous Champion hurdle top 3 finish in recent years , Supreme hurdle winners in recent times have gone onto win after next but one year [Brave Inca and Hors La Loi III] , Binocular was a runner up in 2008 and went onto to win in last years Champion....
So at the moment the main fancies for the 20011 Champion Hurdle are -
Binocular
Hurricane Fly
Menorah
Peddlers Cross
Binocular is the defending champ, Menorah is the Supreme novice champ. Peddlers Cross won the NIM Novices Hurdle which has also thrown up Champion Hurdle winners, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq... So we know these 3 have the previous festival form, but why is Hurricane Fly so well fancied? it hasn"t got no Cheltenham experience at all but if u look through his form, then you"ll see why :)
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=663874
Hurricane Fly has took the same races prep route [bar the John James at Cork in November] as did the great Istabraq once do as his prep campaign before going onto win at Cheltenham.. This plus he has looked so bloody impressive really puts a fly in the ointment in trying to separate the clear top 4 in the betting....
Istabraq still holds the course record for the Champion hurdle 3m 48.1secs, if not for the festival being abandoned in 2001 i think this great horse would of been the 1st to win the champion hurdle 4 times..
Here are some highlights of Istabraq"s races, ""the place is going POTTY"" lol lol lol :) [2m 46secs in, excitable commentating , luvvv it]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVB6_HvBv8U&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rUaQaY_Lqw[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiRBxMY52u8[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swrQea-NDrA[/youtube]
nosey-p:
Too much info, too much info, system overload.
Now were did I put that pin
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