Poker Forum > Strategy
Maths help please
pokerpops:
I witnessed a hand the other evening and it got me wondering about the maths of the situation on the river...
No comment required on any part of this other than the river please
.50/1 live
UTG+1 raises to £6
3 callers including BB
Flop - 4d 4h ah
Original raiser shoves for £23 (I know, I know, but this is live poker!)
Two callers -
MP, playing c£300 bought in for £250 I think. Always thought him to be a good reg, has a few decent scores to his name and is a tricky winning player
BB, playing c£350. Works offshore but is in regularly when he"s home. Has had a good evening so far and is well up on his £100 BI. His call preflop closed the action.
Turn - 4c
check/check
River :2h:
BB bets £50
So - if you"re MP and have an Ace, how often does BB have to have the other 4 in order to make a fold profitable?
Could you fold on the basis of "Best I can do is split the pot"
Am I over-analysing this?
Marty719:
Def a case of over-analysing. We do not want to be folding 4s full of aces in this spot when our action closes the betting, esp when the turn goes c/c.
GarethC:
--- Quote from: Marty719 on February 25, 2011, 15:44:45 PM ---
Def a case of over-analysing. We do not want to be folding 4s full of aces in this spot when our action closes the betting, esp when the turn goes c/c.
--- End quote ---
[ ] Answered the question.
To make a call of £50 to win £120.50 you need to be winning 29% (50/(120.50+50)*100) of the time to break even. Therefore if you think he has the 4 (or aces full or a straight flush) >71% of the time you should fold.
WYoung83:
cant fold, The ammount of time he has the same hand as you.
Swinebag:
--- Quote from: GarethC on February 25, 2011, 17:43:32 PM ---
--- Quote from: Marty719 on February 25, 2011, 15:44:45 PM ---
Def a case of over-analysing. We do not want to be folding 4s full of aces in this spot when our action closes the betting, esp when the turn goes c/c.
--- End quote ---
[ ] Answered the question.
To make a call of £50 to win £120.50 you need to be winning 29% (50/(120.50+50)*100) of the time to break even. Therefore if you think he has the 4 (or aces full or a straight flush) >71% of the time you should fold.
--- End quote ---
Pretty sure there were 2 callers on the flop making it £50 to win £143.50 which means you need to be winning even less of the time.
Can"t find a fold here, especially after the lack of turn action
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