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Hand Analysis (from OnLive)

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lukybugur:
In OnLive last night I"m involved in the following;

Play is 7 handed, 22 players remain, Blinds are 4k/8k, I"ve just clawed my way back up to around 9th in chips (slightly below average), I"ve been playing v tight, player in BB has been chip leader from early on and has been bullying me off hands with regular re-raises. UTG+1 is short stacked and has shown he"s willing to shove with any two cards.

On SB I"m dealt  qc td
UTG+1 calls 8k

I call the 4k, BB checks.

Flop comes   :3d: 6d ts

With top pair I uncharacteristically bet out 16k of my 54k stack into the 24k pot happy to take it down there. I"m also happy to call a push from UTG+1. To my surprise, BB immediately pushes All-In for 165k and UTG+1 insta-calls for his remaining 41k.

I"m getting great pot odds to call, I"ve invested a third of my stack into the pot already, I"m short stacked but have been through a tough and somewhat emotional survival course to get this far. I think;

To Call and win would take me into the top 5 in chips

To Fold would leave me with 38k (around 12th) with the blinds having just left me and still alive with a chance to make the final table and $10k WSOP Seat

To Call and lose to an over-pair or flush draw here would mean being out in 22nd

What would y"all do ... ? What do you put these guys on and would you call for your Tournament Life in the biggest tournament you"ve ever played in ... ?

I"ll play the hand down once I have a few replies.

kinboshi:
I would have pushed on the flop.  You don"t have enough chips behind to  worry a caller who is prepared to call 16K on the flop, i.e. you bet that now and they call, they"re going to be calling a shove on the turn.  Surely the flop is pretty much the best you could have hoped for (minus the flush draw).

Your hand isn"t strong enough that you want action.  A push gives both of them a lot to think about - the short-stack his tournament life, and it"s a significant chunk of the big stack.  Your bet gives a hand such as Ax of diamonds the odds to call. 

Of course, what the hell do I know?  I was knocked out several hours earlier by 85o.

As for calling now....I don"t know.  Horrible situation, and I have no idea what you"re up against.  If I have a dog here, it"s probably run off as it knows I"m looking for something to kick.  

Eck:
Most of these problems tend to manifest with the pre-flop play. I would ask myself why has shortstack limped when previously he has pushed with atc as you say. Therefore would give him credit for something good (AA/KK) and he is looking for more than the blinds. (Not necessarily the case as we have seen some questionable plays so could be a larger range). Therefore i save myself the 4k normally as you only have 6/7 BBs and would look to get them in the middle in a better position, even pushing with atc into an unopened pot would be preferable to calling at this stage imo.

As played the actions would suggest you are behind at least one (Shortstack still likes his hand even with all the action) and BB may have hit Flush draw or raggedy 2 pair. Fold and shove into next unopened pot.

Expecting to be totally wrong and you were in front.... :D

BioBlinx:
This is an interesting hand. Just a couple of questions about the reads and such.

The BB would regularly reraise you to bully you off hands, would he normally do this preflop or post flop?

Also, the atc player, would he push ATC pre or postflop the most?

The situation as it came about, the limp preflop is quite fine, despite the ATC players limp which I agree would be suspicious had be constantly pushing ATC preflop, you"re still getting 5/1 on your money, I think thats enough for a limp to hit something that can take the rest of his chips if he has something good.

The flop bet I"m not sure about. Firstly, yeah the bet is leaving you short, you"re betting a fair portion of your stack. Kinboshi might have been right with his push in suggestion here. Or you check raise all in. But yeah, its hard because how can you not like this flop? I think though as played out, the action you get is tough, thats why I was wondering whether the BB and ATC player did their plays pre or post flop the most. But it looks like the BBs push suprised you.

Running the numbers, Assuming that you"re behind to at least one guy, I cant find a situation where you"re the 7/2 dog you need to be here to make the call profitable. but that is giving credit to one of these guys for a better hand than you. My numbers may be completely wrong too so I dont know.

God its a tough one. I think in the situation you ended up in, I"m folding here. Im just wondering though whether something could have played out differently to avoid it or not, its a tough on. Anyway, I"ve been waffling on enough, I"ll let someone else try and answer :P.

Mikeyboy9361:
The main thing here is the importance of the tournament to you, as you say you"ve been thru an emotional roller coaster, and you can see the possibility of a final table. After you had made up the bet, and then hit the flop, I think at that point maybe you should have pushed, as it has turned out with the big raise and the insta call you are probably behind.
You are probably up against a flush draw, and maybe something like ace 10 who has also hit the flop. Any way if it was me I would lay this hand down and hope to get it all in when in a better position and a stronger hand, even though the pot odds are tempting.
So final answer Chris, is lay it down!

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