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Hand Analysis (from OnLive)

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lukybugur:
4 outta 4 for a fold!???! Good! I folded!

GB2Loose in BB turns over 4s 5c for an open-ended straight draw

jacklevel turns tc 9c  

Turn is ks

River is 8d

As we all suspected, I"d folded the best and winning hand! I was 45% fave in this 3 way pot on the flop, GB2 is 37%. Although never a favourite, what I thought to be a very loose bet is pretty justified according to the stats. jacklevel is just 10%! My fold though made jack a 64% favourite.

Obviously I realise now that I should have called the All-Ins. I don"t think I"d ever push 2.5 times the pot into a multi-way pot in first position with a pair of Tens Q kicker though.

As this happened online, I didn"t get enough time to fully consider what each opponent had. With only 8k invested in the pot and calling two bets on the flop for his tournament life, 95% of me put jacklevel on an overpair. The other 5% of me put him on AT. My fold was more through confusion, surprise and fear - I certainly wouldn"t have mucked my hand within 15 secs in a big live event but I probably would still have mucked nonetheless.

I (maybe stupidly) wanted action, then, when I got what I termed to be too much action, I talked myself out continuing in favour of staying alive (albeit barely) in a tourney that meant a LOT to me. I think this niggling negative and passive mindset has been brought on by a recent run of losing EVERY 50/50 on BlueSq.

Thank you to everyone who"s taken the time to scrutinise, critisise and sympathise. Please feel free to keep the opinions coming now that you know the outcome. Comments like "Donk!" and "Idiot" are expected from those who have the benefit of reading this post.

Kin, I hope you don"t mind that I"ve adopted the below animation from one of your posts yesterday. I still go into knots when I see it! Probably because it sums up this and many more of my hands so well!!

APAT:
I saw the hand and remembered your disbelief when the cards were revealed following your fold Neil.  I think I agree with Daniel here, in that that flop was probably as good as you could have expected with your stack at that point.  I"m pushing at that point.

kinboshi:

--- Quote from: APAT on December 03, 2007, 17:36:01 PM ---
I saw the hand and remembered your disbelief when the cards were revealed following your fold Neil.  I think I agree with Daniel here, in that that flop was probably as good as you could have expected with your stack at that point.  I"m pushing at that point.

--- End quote ---


Des - you don"t want to be agreeing with me!  My decision making has been shocking recently!

Neil - love the sig.  It"s such a great little image.  It also shows what I was doing last night.

lukybugur:
I think it boils down to the fact that I shouldn"t have been that short stacked. I think I got too used to "surviving" rather than "playing" in this event and considered the fold (absolutely the wrong play statistically and strategically) to be the safe option.

No Pro playing that hand would have folded other than on a serious Cash or Final Table bubble maybe ... then again, as I"m told in almost every magazine I read, no Pro would have allowed himself to be that short-stacked. The strategy behind such is one I only agree with to a certain degree and maybe this is why I"m only an moderately successful player.

Earlier, when I was down at 5k/6k with blinds at 600/1200 I was still folding hands and even folding blinds waiting for opportunities - a serious no-no strategy by the best players in the world. Had I made the right call in the above hand though, as a reward for playing this desperate, survival-style poker 20 mins earlier, I would have launched myself from 25th of 27 into the top 5 with 20 remaining within less than two crippling blind rotations.

I"m still open to hearing what more APATers think.

biffa85:
I think you made the concidered decision, you had to feel you were probably behind with one and the other on some kind of a draw, laying down understandable all things concidered, yes you had the hand and odds to call, but heartt wants to live to fight another day.  Have to agree with Daniel pushing on the flop was the choice I would probably made. 

But for God"s sake don"t listen to me, I pushed with  ts tc whilst telling my wife I was up against  :as: ah.....(and no I don"t have a clue why I did it!)

;D

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