Poker Forum > Strategy

ITM spot, what to do????

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TheSnapper:

--- Quote from: Swinebag22 on June 25, 2011, 06:49:01 AM ---
Think this is far from a snap shove, given that the caller of the first shove is most likely calling a second shove from Brendan.

However, this is still a great spot 3 handed to scoop up first and if it goes belly up you are still in the hunt.

There is a good chance that you could be facing 4 overcards in a 3 way but it is also the best part of a coinflip to double your payout. you only need to beat one of these hands to do that.

I would normally consider flatting to be option Z here but given the nature of the SB there could be some argument for this. Just not sure what yet.

Yes, my ramblings whilst composing this post have convinced me that I shove here, but I would not consider it a straightforward one. Deal me 88 and it becomes a lot easier.

PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?

--- End quote ---


There is an EV calc, heading out now but will try later.

noble1:

--- Quote ---PS is there a chip EV calculation for this? Noble?
--- End quote ---


ty for that Rob lol  :) ...  Alas Aunt Sally has hidden my mathematically thing me do head and i have my percy thrower head on today [me has been out gardening the past few days, digging, cutting and chopping trees with a tad bit of burning as well, i luvvv burning things lol lol]
$ev OR icm WHATEVER  :P i"ll leave to snapper and the thread, although IMHO u were on the right lines Rob with your line of thought that at best your 35% to win if u shove and get called.. All depends i suspect as to how much u fancy your chances in the scenarios if u call and lose and either the decent player triples up or the maniac wins etc etc OR if u fold whether or not the maniac ko"s shortie and u get to plays HU with the perceived weaker player...

meh it will interesting to see how the thread goes, anyhoooss back to garden, me has some burning to do :)

TheSnapper:


Ok my rudimentary attempt at the sums.

We have to combine 2x EV equations because of the side pot.

The range for button jam is huge but I've played around with it and even the very conservative range of..

22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A2o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o

which is top ~35% of hands, combined with an equally conservative range for SB of..

22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Which is top ~25%

Against those ranges 77 has ~33% equity in the main pot and ~53% in the side pot versus the SB

Stacks are..

Btn: 55000
SB: 168000
BB: 260000

Main pot = .33 (55000+55000) + .67 (-55000) = -550

Side pot =  .53 (168000-55000) + .47 (-111300) = 6780

EV = 6230

So clearly Jamming is +EV without allowing for SB to fold

noble1:

TheSnapper:
ok, how it played out.

Thought process.

The guy on the button was a decent player and it was definately in our best interest that he exited this hand so folding is not an option?

The SB was a complete maniac and could have absolutely any hand here, but! he is never folding to an iso raise.

77 is definately ahead of his range.

The SB is so bad that we expect to crush him HU playing a small ball game giving him more opportunities to err.

All that leads to the point Noble makes.


--- Quote from: noble1 on June 26, 2011, 08:03:05 AM ---

if u call and u had 33% equity then basically u win 33 times £500..
of the other 67 times break it down into each scenario - u heads up with player1 or 2, u as the short stack 3ways.. what % of times do u end up getting 1st 2nd or 3rd ???

if u fold [lets say player1 and player2 are 50/50]
50 times u lock up 2nd place money and end up heads up with the weak player, what % of times will u end up beating the weak player heads up [for instance u think u have a skill advantage and will beat him 70% of the time]
50 times the short stack doubles up - with your chip advantage 3way, what % would u guesstimate u still winning, getting 2nd or coming 3rd ???


--- End quote ---


There are just too many variables in there for my "hard drive" but would love to see an attempt at it Noble. Specifically, of the times we dont win the pot, how do you figure out the % of times we finish 2nd & 3rd in the pot?

Anyhow, I flatted, which I now suspect points to a risk aversion leak? but hey its better than folding right?

Flop is  9d tc  js SB leads and I fold, SB shows  ah jd and btn thankfully misses his oesd with  qd 5s and we are heads up with a 205k stack versus SB"s 278k

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