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End of MTT - is this guy correct to take a shot?

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AJDUK:
I play all my poker on gut feel, don"t use HUD"s or poker tracker etc because I don"t take it seriously enough. Never dabbled with ICM either. This sit cropped up after 4 hours play in the Poker Player GP freeroll.
Prizes are $250, $150 and $100 plus winner gets a seat in grand final.
Chip leader is abso crushing the FT he had 1/3rd of chips when 10 handed and half the chips when 5 handed.

All the hands I"ve been called with on this table have been decent. The big stack has been sat immediately on my right the whole FT, and I haven"t once reshoved him though I did shove on his BB a few times along the way. Basically 3 handed I"ve been shoving on the shortie with 100% success so was expecting to get HU with the big stack.

This just feels like too big a call to make, since he hasn"t put his stack at risk to that extent on FT as no-one ever had more than I had at this point. Or is it a good spot for him to take a pot shot, knowing that the shortie is gonna be in bad shape?

If it"s a bad play, what do you think his calling range should be? If it"s a good play, how much wider should his calling range be? Anything wrong with my shove?

Not a 50p, just looking to learn from those that know better. Thx.

***** History for hand T5-155222754-290 (TOURNAMENT: "Grand Prix Event 1", O-26899-1, buy-in: $0) *****
Start hand: Tue Jul 05 00:11:02 BST 2011
Table: Table #16 [155222754] (NO_LIMIT TEXAS_HOLDEM 3500/7000, ante: 700, Chips)
User: AJDUK34
Button: seat 3
Players in round: 3
Seat 3: betu2riv1 (59646)
Seat 8: Sammy.John (395247)
Seat 9: AJDUK34 (163107)
Sammy.John posts ante 700
AJDUK34 posts ante 700
betu2riv1 posts ante 700
Sammy.John posts small blind (3500)
AJDUK34 posts big blind (7000)
---
Dealing pocket cards
Dealing to AJDUK34: [7s, 7h]
betu2riv1 folds
Sammy.John raises 31500 to 35000
AJDUK34 raises 155407 to 162407 [all in]
Sammy.John calls 127407
--- Dealing flop [ :3h:, 9s, 4d]
--- Dealing turn [ js]
--- Dealing river [ qd]
---
Summary:
Main pot: 326914 won by Sammy.John (326914)
Rake taken: $0
Seat 3: betu2riv1 (58946), net: -700
Seat 8: Sammy.John (559054), net: +163807, [ jd,  qs] (TWO_PAIR QUEEN, JACK)
Seat 9: AJDUK34 (0), net: -163107, [7s, 7h] (PAIR SEVEN)
***** End of hand T5-155222754-290 *****

Zozzy:
His preflop raise, even allowing for the antes is excessive. If this was a basic blind steal with a view to folding to your shove I would expect it to be less. Coupled with this information you say he has been "crushing the table" which describes him maybe as a bigchip bully, which makes my gut feeling say he is going nowhere to a reraise.
Lets say for arguments sake you have a 10% chance of taking the pot down preflop.
To answer your question I would say that it is not a bad call by villain because he is comitted - I haven"t worked out the exact odds but by reading the figures once (as you would do in the heat of battle) I would say that he is slightly less than
40% pot odds. Holding QJ in these circumstances I generally think of 40% being the figure to work to.**

In my humble opinion I would say there is nothing wrong with your shove at all. You obviously thought that you had more fold equity than I am suggesting but given the payout structure it is a "no brainer" imo.
The difference in prize money 2nd to 3rd is minimal and the golden prize for 1st place is the seat.

The alternative play to just flat call float while being last to act on the flop is wrong. And folding is just too weak unless you are laddering up massively in a top heavy pay structure.

noble1:
1st off congrats on getting that far, as for the hand, trying to fathom how these guys react and what there bet sizing may mean can be a nightmare sometimes :)
below are 2 links to a handy site which will give u some ranges to go by -
http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=7000&sb=3500&ante=700&structure=0.5%2C0.3%2C0.2&s1=59646&s2=395247&s3=163107&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html?action=calculate&bb=7000&sb=3500&ante=700&structure=0.5%2C0.3%2C0.2&s1=402947&s2=151207&s3=51246&s4=&s5=&s6=&s7=&s8=&s9=

the top link gives u a range if he pushed 100%, if u made the assumption whilst in play that his range would be far tighter than that and after making a 5x raise he will call any shove u make, what would your shove range be now AJDUK ???

the bottom link is how the stacks would be if u folded, if Sammy.John folded his button would u shove this wide ???

just a couple of questions to get u thinking AJDUK, there are many a APAT"er who have made a final table or 2, i"m pretty sure Rob [swinebag] will give some solid advice.. Snapper, AMRN , G2L , Leigh [chipaccrual] and many many others i could mention i"m sure will give u there outlook on it....


just a note for the APAT MODS - any chance of having some sort of sticky giving a guide how best to post your questions with links etc to hand converters or replayers etc etc...
mucho regards to the MODS..

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/reshove.html
handy calc tool where u can put in various situations for reshoving a raiser, this is cEV though... But still handy never the less....

AMRN:
Once he"s opened to 5x, he"s (should be) unlikely to fold any holding. You have to figure his raise size into your consideration when shoving - he"s almost nailed on to call.

Swinebag:
 I think QJ is a powerhouse 3 handed so it is unlikely he will fold. When he 5x opens it makes the fold from your perspective much less likely. Having said that you have 77 3 handed which is also huge.

I think if I raise less and take into account your image, I could find a fold, but would probably still call as it is a great spot to take this down vs your small pairs, AK, and AT- hands that you shove with. I can still suck out against dominating hands and if I lose,still have a decent stack.

Well done on a great deep run. You just need to learn how to win flips  ;)

Thanks noble for mentioning me separately from those fishes G2L, snapper and Redfern. Would hate to be associated in any way with that crew.

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