Poker Forum > Strategy

End of MTT - is this guy correct to take a shot?

<< < (2/2)

deanp27:
Seems pretty standard when there is a big prize at the top. Villain is obviously terrible though but he is always gonna call it off once he has 5x it. Might be an argument to hold out for HU and own him then but I take the shot now

TheSnapper:
Some questions first.....



* What is the value of the Grand final seat

* "Chip leader is abso crushing the FT" I assume you mean open raising a ton?, as he should be

* Has he been raising this large always

* Has he raise folded any


Villains play in the hand is awful, his hand does"nt fare well against your reship range so raising QJo with the intention of calling is ridiculous.

His options here should be dependent on how likely you are to resteal, if you are not likely to resteal light he should abuse that by raising (with a plan to fold to a resteal) often and small, 14000 - 16000 will succeed often enough to be profitable.

If you are likely to resteal light, open jamming takes that option from you and your range for defending becomes super tight, especially so given ICM implications.

As played, I suspect when you shove you know he calls somewhat light. Your hand doesn"t fare that well when called........

against a wide calling range of top 40% 44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o
you only have 55%

If QJo is botttom of his range here you are up against a top 14% range of 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo
and your equity is only 45%

Net result is, fold equity is a large % of your overall equity in this spot and an important factor to consider.

Ideal scenario with this villain type is to play, in position small ball but that may not be an option.

George2Loose:
His bet size makes it a nailed on call once you jam. His open is pretty horrible tbh. I much prefer for him to raise/fold raise/call std 2.2x or even set you in rather than make the play he did

noble1:
with 77 if we shove and get called 100% of the time which seems what we mostly all agree on, then what happens?

My run it 100 times logic
77 will win at best maybe 50% of the time..
50 times we lose

of the 50 times we double up the effective stacks would now be approx -
P1 - 52,000 [shortie now in bb]
P2 - 326,000 [hero now in sb]
P3 - 232,000 [Sammy.John the former chip leader]

from this 50 times how many times do we now go onto win?
lets say we win 25 times, P3 wins 20 times and P1 the short stack wins 5 times...

so after shoving 77 we go onto win 25 times....


if we fold the effective stacks approx look like this -

P1 - 52,000 [shortie in the bb]
P2 - 160,000 [hero in the sb]
P3 - 407,000 [Sammy.John still the chip leader]

so if we folded 100 times, from this position out of 100 times how many times would u guesstimate P2 will win???
any1 disagree with P2 winning 35 times ??
P3 wins 55 times and P1 wins 10 times...

so out of 100 times the shove nets us 25 wins and the fold nets us 35 wins...

Navigation

[0] Message Index

[*] Previous page