Author Topic: How to pick a grand national winner  (Read 6649 times)

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Swinebag

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2009, 20:40:43 PM »

I"ll happily have a 4 v 4. though I think we may pick some horses the same so it could be 2 v 2. Points system is fine



My four picks

1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster



I am going on

1. Rambling Minster
2. Parson"s Legacy
3. L"Ami
4. Irish Invader

L


Looking like win win for both of us here louis
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Swinebag

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2009, 20:42:57 PM »


Butlers Cabin surprised many people by winning the 4 mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007 and then showed this to be no fluke by following up in the Irish National four weeks later. The Irish National is traditionally a great Aintree trial and he was a very game winner of the Irish race in 2007 so because he is french bred does not put me off.
He made a very encouraging run at Cheltenham imo where he finished just over eight lengths behind Character Building in the Kim Muir. This was a marked improvement on the rest of his recent form and he looks to be peaking at just the right time for Aintree,this with that in 08 he was going along nicely when coming to grief at Bechers second time round plus he was in poor form leading into 08 ,i think he has a far better chance this year.


If ever there is a year for the French bred "rule" to be broken, it could be this one. Same with the weights too.

gla with the National too.
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noble1

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2009, 22:14:41 PM »
ok my thoughts for cornish sett -

i do like my national selections to of performed well at key courses or races..1 of these criteria is chepstow and the welsh  national..recent winners or placed in this race are -
2002 Grand National winner Bindaree finished 3rd at Chepstow
1998 Grand National winner Earth Summit WON at Chepstow
1992 Grand National winner Party Politics finished 2nd at Chepstow
1988 Grand National winner Rhyme N Reason finished 2nd at Chepstow

also horses that have run at chepstow in the welsh in the past tends to be a good indicator that the trainer believe there horse to have sufficient stamina for the grand national..horses in recent seasons that have this form line are -
2008 Grand National winner Comply Or Die finished PU at Chepstow in 2005
2007 Grand National winner Silver Birch Won at Chepstow in 2004
2005 Grand National winner Hedgehunter finished 3rd at Chepstow in 2003
1994 Grand National winner Miinnehoma finished 3rd at Chepstow in 1992
1989 Grand National winner Little Polveir finished 8th at Chepstow in 1987

so as you see this can be a good form line to look at...Cornish Sett is a long shot , but after his wind operation it seems to of found a little bit more improvement..paul nicholls has it as his outsider of his 4 but my gut says he has a squeak ..so a little each way action is required.. ;D

On to Hear The Echo the 2008 Irish Grand National winner,,say no more even most housewives know that the irish national is a good indicator .. Since 1987, five Grand National winners have run in the Irish National and 2 have won -
2006 Numbersixvalverde
1998 BobbyJo
of the runners who have raced in the irish national and gone on to win the GN -
2001 Red Marauder 10th
2000 Papillon 2nd
1987 Maori Venture PU

so like the welsh , the fact that the trainer chooses to run there charges in the irish indicates a confidence in stamina.

The 2 horses this year that fit this form line are Hear The Echo and Butlers Cabin.....

after a crazy trading day back on the 30th of march -
17 closing
35/2
17
35/2
37/2
35/2
17
35/2
33/2
35/2
18
19
33
43
41
39
37
31
39
41
54
49
59  hmmm i think i"ll have a nibble
54
49
54
49
43
39
74  missed this price .......... :o
59
54
49
39
28
59
64
49
47
45
43
45 opening

i got on Hear the Echo,, nothing big just 20 quid to win ,, his price has settled in the 20"s area on betfair now but i expect that to come in 2 to 5 points more and then i"ll look to lay a bit off..  ;D

Honeybadg

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2009, 22:27:44 PM »
This may be a pain in the ass to lay as they have closed the ante post book ... hence you will have to lump up new capital on the declared runners.

I had forgotten this ... so I may choose to lay Irish Invader but will have to stump up £1,500 for the day for the joys of doing so.

Annoying!

I have a bit of money on Hear the Echo too ...

L

Swinebag

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2009, 22:34:46 PM »
Hear the echo nearly made it onto my shortlist, even at 11st5. I scratched it when I saw it had fallen/unseated rider 5 times in its career.

good value on it though noble
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noble1

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2009, 00:06:00 AM »
i share your concern also Rob but this season is no falls and 1 unseated rider [watched it , duff jockey lol] the trend boys luv the no falls stat but i prefer the no falls in the current season..
Also mouse morris had stated he would be aimed at this years national hence he campaigned Hear the Echo over hurdles in his first 3 races back , a little trainers trick trying to protect the horses handicap and in his last prep run at gowran in a chase he unseated the jockey so i"m not overly concerned and expect echo to be on song...
Also if you like trends 5 of the last 6 winners of the grand national ran over hurdles the season they won the national,,,the sneeky trainers protecting there horses handicap trend  ;D

for me the key races to look at in the horses past form for the GN are -
the sun alliance - i look for a horse which has ran previously in its past in this,it tends to throw up potential winners,,comply or die being the last who ran in this race in 2005
the irish national
the welsh national
the topham chase
the last year race of the national should always be looked at - of the previous recent fallers in this that go on to win the next year are Slver Birch , Hedgehunter and Red Maruader .. non fallers are Amberleigh House who finished 3rd in 2003 and won in 04.....

so the no falls trend is a bit of a no no for me...just no falls in the current is ok for my picking of donkeys.. ;D
also horses that finish in the top 6 the previous national tend to have a gr8 chance of placing in the next year .. maybe some each way value there.....

bigredders

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2009, 00:14:17 AM »

Hear the echo nearly made it onto my shortlist, even at 11st5. I scratched it when I saw it had fallen/unseated rider 5 times in its career.

good value on it though noble


could always back it on vc bet....they do money back in a free bet if your horse falls/unseats

did it last year, had one fall got a tenner back, stuck it on a 4-1 shot next day, which then won

top value imo

Swinebag

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2009, 07:33:50 AM »
good points noble1. As I said before.....great value there!!
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nosey-p

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2009, 12:31:03 PM »
Ok, talking over give me one horse to win the National

0ffshore Account     each way

bigredders

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2009, 14:48:02 PM »
im on darkness, state of play and knowhere

so there are three to rule out :D

noble1

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Re: How to pick a grand national winner
« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2009, 15:28:17 PM »

im on darkness, state of play and knowhere

so there are three to rule out :D


good luck on those 3 - darkness has a definite shot imo ....