Author Topic: Saturday Donkey  (Read 566114 times)

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Chipaccrual

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #75 on: February 12, 2011, 09:23:45 AM »

WARWICK 2:10 - Bet On totepool At totesport.com Handicap Chase
Chance Du Roy

NEWBURY 3:35 - totesport Trophy Hurdle
Rebel Dancer  e/w
Tarkari  e/w
Get Me Out Of Here


Good pick, imo

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #76 on: February 12, 2011, 12:46:40 PM »


WARWICK 2:10 - Bet On totepool At totesport.com Handicap Chase
Chance Du Roy

NEWBURY 3:35 - totesport Trophy Hurdle
Rebel Dancer  e/w
Tarkari  e/w
Get Me Out Of Here


Good pick, imo


shame Tarkari has withdrawn, yep yep Rebel"s 2nd to TOCCA FERRO [keep a eye out for this one :)] was good form imho plus the race was over 2.5secs ish quicker than the fighting fifth won earlier by Peddlers Cross... tough race today but if Rebel reproduces this form he"ll have a great chance...
Get Me Out Of Here if Jonjo has him right could run this field ragged, big IF but Jonjo has a habit of picking up valuable handicaps :) and 12"s is rather juicy for a repeat of last year :)

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #77 on: February 12, 2011, 13:44:34 PM »
bizarre, what on earth is happening at Newbury with 2 horses dying within yards of each other in the paddock, they suspect electrocution?  just bizarre comes to mind..

Waz1892

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #78 on: February 12, 2011, 19:00:28 PM »
Manu
Arsenal
Cardiff
Orient

Back of the net!... ;D
Carpe Diem
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Team member APAT forum 2013




noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #79 on: February 16, 2011, 10:05:02 AM »
I helped out a friend over the weekend at his pokers whilst our loved ones had a girls spa weekend break.
He has been playing on off for the last 4 years and in that time he has never progressed beyond 25nl.
Anyhows here is a few things i picked up in his game which someone might think will help them.

He was playing 25nl 6max..

UTG he opened his usual range 22+ AJo+ all his suited Broadways KQo  78s+ so about a 13 to 14% range no problem there.
The table was playing quite tight but he never changed his range, he just tightened up?
At the time there was little 3betting so the first adjustment i made to his game was to drop the small pairs 22 - 55 and add some suited connecters and 1gappers in 65s - 67s, 57s - T8s
His std plan of tightening his range was the wrong way of adjusting to the players behind him, rather than changing his frequency i suggested that he change his opening range so that it played better against the tighties ranges behind. The problem with small pairs is that oop its very hard to get them paid off, normally on dry boards oop its difficult to get 3 streets of value out of a tighty and when you do get action from the tighty on wet flops and you hit a set then the hands they mostly play back or on with have good equity with combo draws of some sort. If it had been a fishy loose table then drop the SC"s and replace with the small pairs..
He asked quite rightly WHY? he had the initiative even with the small PP"s but when cbetting if he got called he had little equity, at least with the SC"s he had more chance of hitting the flop plus if his cbet was called on the flop this meant more ways to improve..
Here is an example of how he played 55 -
the usual raise pre and 1 caller on the button, flop -  jd  8h  7s in which he cbets his std amount. The tightish villain was a fairly straight forward honest fit or fold type who called the cbet with AJ for top pair so at best 55 had 12% equity and little chance of improving, even if Mr fit or fold had called TT-99,AJs,KJs,QJs,AJo then 55"s equity is slightly worse.
If he had  9s  8s in this spot then his equity on the flop would of been 31% and far more ways of improving, any 8 any 9 any spade any 10 any 6 and plenty of options in how to continue with the hand if any of these cards came on the turn...

Other things cropped up about his game such as how he adjusted to 3bets, his cbetting and well hmmmm pretty much alot actually lol, post-flop he missed alot of spots to take advantage of because he didn"t adjust to the villains tendencies and so forth..
I"ll post those up later time permitting, hopefully the above might help someone review how they think and adjust there ranges to players plus it can get you thinking on what/when to cbet on whatever flop texture..

[mods - please leave post in Saturday Donkey]

tyty
noble

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #80 on: February 18, 2011, 07:41:40 AM »
Quote
post-flop he missed alot of spots to take advantage of because he didn"t adjust to the villains tendencies and so forth..


just on the above if your hand reading skills are a tad murky then obvious you"ll find the above tricky...

below are some notes i had tucked away on the psychology of hand reading that causes inaccurate reads -

Optimism - some players like to/prefer to believe or convince themselves that they are winning the hand rather than losing it :) this leads you to craft ranges for your opponent to ones more weighted to those that you are beating..

Freudian projection - thinking why we would do something and then applying it to our opponent, the problem is players can vary a lot in how they think..

In the present/recent moment - letting the last few hands seen over influence our decisions on putting players on ranges, this leads to problems when playing opponents who adjust/deviate from how they play the same type of hands/situations :)

Being negative - playing in fear which causes the player to see monsters, most cards on the flop.turn and river will be scare cards :) thus this player will weigh ranges more to what is beating him..

Conflicting thoughts - we make a decision then even though you get further info later in the hand that implies you may of made the wrong choice, you still stubbornly stick to your original conclusion...

Not forgetting your own hand - when trying to put yourself in your opponents position and trying to see the hand from there perspective, sometimes our hand can still overly influence us because its tough to totally forget what we actually have, to truly look it from the opponents perspective we have to try and view it like he does, afterall he doesn"t know what cards we have ! ! ....

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #81 on: February 18, 2011, 08:42:13 AM »



WARWICK 2:10 - Bet On totepool At totesport.com Handicap Chase
Chance Du Roy

NEWBURY 3:35 - totesport Trophy Hurdle
Rebel Dancer  e/w
Tarkari  e/w
Get Me Out Of Here


Good pick, imo


shame Tarkari has withdrawn, yep yep Rebel"s 2nd to TOCCA FERRO [keep a eye out for this one :)] was good form imho plus the race was over 2.5secs ish quicker than the fighting fifth won earlier by Peddlers Cross... tough race today but if Rebel reproduces this form he"ll have a great chance...
Get Me Out Of Here if Jonjo has him right could run this field ragged, big IF but Jonjo has a habit of picking up valuable handicaps :) and 12"s is rather juicy for a repeat of last year :)


right fingers crossed, i"m off to watch it, i"m hoping there"s no repeat of Saturday...
glgl if you are punting today..............

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #82 on: February 26, 2011, 11:09:50 AM »
 KEMPTON 3:00 - Racing Post Chase Handicap

3 of interest at rather juicy long odds...
Polyfast
Free World
Fistral Beach

i"m going to back all 3 as i fancy a upset today, fingers crossed it"ll be one of these 3...

good luck all whomever is punting today...

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #83 on: March 05, 2011, 10:03:32 AM »

jacklevel06

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #84 on: March 05, 2011, 10:38:38 AM »
Any fancies for Kelso ,noble heading off there in an hour.
Mug punter on the horses since 1981

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #85 on: March 05, 2011, 11:34:40 AM »

Any fancies for Kelso ,noble heading off there in an hour.


haven.t looked at that card, hope u have some good punting sir...

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #86 on: March 08, 2011, 18:08:08 PM »
after the world cup it was hard to see where the next crop of England players were coming from...
now things are beginning to look a tad more rosy, Wilshire,Rodwell,Henderson,Hart,Cleverly,Sturridge plus and it pains me say it Raheem Sterling of Liverpool...

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or43glYksL4[/youtube]

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #87 on: March 12, 2011, 09:45:00 AM »
Right gloves off, time to try and get in gear for Cheltenham and get winning.. :)
I have been looking through the videos of the Imperial Cup Handicap contenders looking for the improvers, Team Pipe are the buggers that tilt the trend for improvers.. [having targeted this race over the years]
The only trend i tend to take stock in for the Imperial Cup is 9 of 10 winners had their last run between 21 and 55 days ago..
So i am putting a line through -
Arctic Wings
Points Of View
Alpine Eagle
Numide
Via Galilei
Old Way
Pateese
Drill Sergeant
Cheshire Prince
Fiulin
Kangaroo Court

of the rest the ones that caught my eye were -
Ultimate
Screaming Brave
Tito Bustillo
Alarazi
Ronaldo Des Mottes
Arrayan
Dona


So surprise surprise Arrayan for the win and some each way action on Ultimate and Tito Bustillo.....

Good luck if you are punting today, save some powder for Cheltenham...........


duke3016

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #88 on: March 12, 2011, 09:51:37 AM »
Happy punting today people, off to look at the odds of Chezger taking down the BCPC team game today.  ;D

jacklevel06

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2011, 10:41:31 AM »
I like FIULIN in the imperial cup.Looks on a decent mark to me ,will like the drier ground .Paddy Brennan a plus in the saddle, im on e/w at 20/1.
Mug punter on the horses since 1981