Author Topic: Saturday Donkey  (Read 565962 times)

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noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #150 on: April 16, 2011, 16:28:31 PM »

jacklevel06

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #151 on: April 16, 2011, 16:57:24 PM »
Mug punter on the horses since 1981

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #152 on: April 23, 2011, 00:53:54 AM »
For a Saturday there is some pretty poor racing across the cards today imho...

SANDOWN 3:10 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase Handicap
Faasel - 2nd 14/1
Aimigayle - x

SANDOWN 4:50 - Poker At bet365.com Handicap
Guest Book - 2nd 16/1
Benandonner - x


good luck all whatever you are punting on today....

Always try to follow this golden rule and u wont go far wrong - if u spot a horse/s which in your opinion is/are likely to win and whose true odds [in your opinion] are less than the odds available with bookmakers/betfair etc, then u have found yourself a profitable betting opportunity........ :)  eazzzzy peeezzy  :)

« Last Edit: October 07, 2011, 19:11:14 PM by noble1 »

thacker

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #153 on: April 24, 2011, 14:42:34 PM »
the only problem !! what should a horse price be? opinions differ and some have an idea and some don"t. Surely a horse thats going to win should be short.So if it a good price back it !!

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #154 on: April 24, 2011, 22:19:02 PM »

the only problem !! what should a horse price be? opinions differ and some have an idea and some don"t. Surely a horse thats going to win should be short.So if it a good price back it !!


i said above in brackets [in your opinion]... horse race odds are indefinite, after all absolute odds reflect the exact chances of any eventuality like a flip of a coin for example.. the odds compilers price up prior [in there opinion], the tipsters put out there tips, punters with there own opinions also react, the betting market takes shape.. indefinite odds opinion versus opinion, overrounds to take into account etc etc.. indefinite odds are just that.... they are someone's interpretation of the possibilities that exist... therefore, in any sporting event you are pitching yourself against the odds setter.... it therefore follows that the odds offered on a horserace are not necessarily correct... put bluntly they are largely a guess....  we as the punter make a educated guess using whatever info we have at hand, we should ideally be pricing up each race ourselves looking for what we consider horses that are over priced/under rated by the betting market for whatever reason etc etc, then we make our bet or pass the race over because we cant get a decent price... do we not??  but we dont pass everytime, or else we are allowing the odds makers to dictate our betting patterns, so even when we cant get the price we"d like, we take the shorter because we think we"ll win... but not to often huh :)  its the road to the poor house if we do it one to many times ;D
Quote
Surely a horse thats going to win should be short.So if it a good price back it !!

i"ve read the above but cant quite fathom the point, so forgive my thickness if i am totally off with what you are trying to point out... a horse that in our opinion can win won"t always be short, our selection method may be different to the majority of the market....

the indefinite proposition, oh what joy it is :) there are random factors to be considered in every horse race and those random factors will kick in from time to time, well lol lol sometimes more than from time to time.... :)



thacker

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #155 on: April 25, 2011, 09:57:39 AM »
think about Noble you might get it ???

We could go on and on - but betting on horses is like playing poker.Loads of incomplete information but above all the team holding the aces "the odds makers" can be cracked by using their misconceptions against them.Thats why I bet in Handicaps.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2011, 10:26:49 AM by thacker »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #156 on: April 25, 2011, 13:19:10 PM »

think about Noble you might get it ???

We could go on and on - but betting on horses is like playing poker.Loads of incomplete information but above all the team holding the aces "the odds makers" can be cracked by using their misconceptions against them.Thats why I bet in Handicaps.


again the above is errrrrr ?
poker is absolute odds...
the odds compilers are very bright, the bookmaker firms wont employ any old herbert, believe it or not... there misconceptions?
the punters are the ones with the misconceptions !!  :)

thacker

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #157 on: April 25, 2011, 13:41:37 PM »
lol poker is luck and to call it  is absolute odds is more than incorrect.In any one hand even if you have the " so called odds to call "you might be dead due to the fact of the cards already being out.So in any one hand you never know.

The bookies make a favorite in every race.Less than 40% of favorites win.The bookies win because they take bets on every horse and balance the books.Many punters are skint but by the same token many bookies have gone bust. We will never agree but hey its only my opinion but im trying to say is that the mainstream opinion of what it takes to win a race in the country is totally wrong or more favorites would win and less punters would be skint.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2011, 13:57:49 PM by thacker »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #158 on: April 25, 2011, 14:01:09 PM »
all i can say is sigh....

you have your outs,your opponent/s have theres, there are only so many cards left possibly in the deck, absolute odds.....  poker is not indefinite, after all we dont get say random cards suddenly being added to the deck do we, well u might in the odd home game if there is a cheating so+so in it lol  :)

there are over-rounds, 1 to 2% per horse, thats how long term works, the rest is common sense, laying off bets or shortening or lengthening other horses odds etc etc... 
30% ish favourites win long term is a bit closer to the actual amount of times that they win.....



thacker

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #159 on: April 26, 2011, 09:26:29 AM »
http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/tipster-performance.php?tipster=PACEFORMFREETIPS&backlay=back&sdate=01%2F04%2F2011&edate=25%2F04%2F2011&advised=No

You seem to be very arrogant Noble1 but I let the results speak form them self.Thank good the flat season is underway. ;D

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #160 on: April 26, 2011, 14:14:38 PM »
not arrogant, just dont agree with u  :)   tried to point it out... sorry u took it that way..

small sample, but well done sir , keep it up...

thacker

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #161 on: April 27, 2011, 09:13:27 AM »
all i can say is sigh....

comes across as arrogant. edit ..........
« Last Edit: April 28, 2011, 10:17:33 AM by thacker »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #162 on: April 27, 2011, 19:51:48 PM »

all i can say is sigh....

comes across as arrogant.


maybe one day [if ever] u will come back and edit the above.. :) edit BIG BABY ;D
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 21:55:07 PM by noble1 »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #163 on: April 29, 2011, 21:51:47 PM »
here are some donks to avoid [bar FRANKEL :)]  i"m there tomorrow, hopefully to see Frankel win :)
good luck all whatever you are punt on tomorrow....


NEWMARKET 2:00 -
Brick Red - x
Breakheart - 3rd 7/1

NEWMARKET 2:30 -
Dandino - 1st 7/4

NEWMARKET 3:10 -
Frankel  :) :) :) - 1st 1/2
Casamento EW - x

NEWMARKET 3:45 -
Borderlescott - x
Tangerine Trees - 1st 18/1

NEWMARKET 4:20 -
Coeus - 2nd 6/1
Regal Approval - x

NEWMARKET 4:55 -
Cai Shen - 2nd 4/1
Namibian - x

NEWMARKET 5:25 -
Twice Bitten - x
Zain Shamardal - 3rd 3/1

DONCASTER 7:45 -
We Have A Dream - x

THIRSK 4:45 -
Amazing Star - 3rd 12/1

THIRSK 5:15 -
Blaze Of Thunder - x

THIRSK 5:45 -
Mey Blossom - x
Tillys Tale - x

GOODWOOD 2:15 -
Gallic Star - EW - x

GOODWOOD 4:00 -
Humidor - 1st 15/2
Judge n" Jury - x

« Last Edit: October 07, 2011, 19:19:33 PM by noble1 »

hollaboo

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #164 on: April 29, 2011, 22:41:55 PM »
small punt on roderic o connor for a bit of interest, got a bit to find with frankl but i might get a run for my money