Author Topic: Saturday Donkey  (Read 566025 times)

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nosey-p

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1200 on: March 10, 2015, 09:30:20 AM »


Had a long weekend away now to get some studying done for tomorrow, now wear did I put that pin


u meant your lucky pin right?  ;)


1.30 - Supreme Novices
Don"t fancy anything that much at the odds on offer, i"ll pass and watch.

2.05 - Arkle Trophy
One stick to beat the favourite with and that gives the bookies hope that Un De Sceaux gets beat is his lack of  experience of never having ran at Cheltenham. Also 16 of the last 17 Arkle winners have never fallen or unseated in a chase and Un De Sceaux is the only faller in a chase in this years line up. Now those two stats are enough for me to have a little nibble on Vibrato Valtat.

Vibrato Valtat @5/1  1point win

2.40 - Ultima Handicap Chase [http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=6616.msg239692#msg239692]
The Druids Nephew @8/1  2point win
Annacotty @20/1  1point ew
Barrakilla @12/1  2point win

3.20 - Champion Hurdle
just watch again and have my fingers crossed for The New One.

4.00 - Mares Hurdle
pass :)

4.40 - Toby Balding National Hunt Chase
pass  :)

5.15 - Novices Handicap Chase
Knock House @12/1  1point win
Generous Ransom @8/1  1point win
Stellar Notion @14/1  2point win
Golden Hoof @25/1 2point win



How can you pass when all the bookies are offering money back

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1201 on: March 10, 2015, 10:18:37 AM »

How can you pass when all the bookies are offering money back


existing customer special offers for myself are a rarity.. but it is a person specific one and the odd dormant accounts that i have occasionally give me the odd offer or free bet in an attempt to kick start me in to using their services again.
if your account has been limited then u can forget free bets for existing customers :o

nosey-p

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1202 on: March 10, 2015, 10:45:41 AM »
I thought Sky, William Hill and a few others were offering this for new and old accounts?  and more are offering money back if the FAV wins (first race) Boyle are offering money back on all races if the SP Fav wins

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1203 on: March 10, 2015, 11:12:09 AM »

I thought Sky, William Hill and a few others were offering this for new and old accounts?  and more are offering money back if the FAV wins (first race) Boyle are offering money back on all races if the SP Fav wins


bookmakers MUST manage their risk to stay in business and unfortunately some customers don"t fall within there risk management structure.

nosey-p

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1204 on: March 10, 2015, 11:37:21 AM »
So this is for mug punters like me  :D

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1205 on: March 10, 2015, 12:04:57 PM »

So this is for mug punters like me  :D


certainly not Wayne, get as many matched deposit or deposit top up bonuses with the online firms as u can to increase your war chest with that particular firm. There are various ways to disguise your success if u have it ;) top up the account with fresh funds on occasions and bet whole numbers, don"t place your bets within the same time frame everytime and stay logged in for while etc etc.. these and other ploys are ways to stay under the radar for long as possible.

my tip when going with whatever firm is to check out through the various forums what there customer services department is like. :) [having learnt through the odd bad experience over the years]

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1206 on: March 11, 2015, 03:13:15 AM »
Cheltenham 11th March
1.30 - Neptune Novices Hurdle
Nichols Canyon @7/2  3point win

2.05 - RSA Chase
Don Poli - to short but most likely winner, i can"t split enough of the rest for a decent place chance at the current odds

2.40 - Coral Cup
Dell Arca @20/1  2point win
Baradari @16/1  1point win

3.20 - Queen Mother Champion Chase
Champagne Fever @5/1  1point win

4.00 - Cross Country Chase
pass :)



noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1207 on: March 11, 2015, 11:33:52 AM »
Cheltenham 11th March
4.40 - Fred Winter
Baron Alco @20/1  1point win
Zarib @12/1  1point win

5.15 - Champion Bumper
pass :-\


and as i write Champagne Fever has been pulled out.

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1208 on: March 11, 2015, 18:46:09 PM »
Cheltenham 12th March
2.05 - Pertemps Handicap
Bygones Sovereign @25/1  1point ew
Call The Cops @8/1  2point win

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1209 on: March 11, 2015, 20:18:54 PM »

Cheltenham 12th March
2.05 - Pertemps Handicap
Bygones Sovereign @25/1  1point ew
Call The Cops @8/1  2point win


Cheltenham 12th March
2.40 - Ryanair Chase
Foxrock @8/1  1point win
Balder Succes @7/1  2point win
Ma Filleule @5/1  1point win

3.20 - World Hurdle
Saphir Du Rheu @5/1  1point win
Lieutenant Colonel @8/1 1point win

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1210 on: March 11, 2015, 23:46:52 PM »


Cheltenham 12th March
2.05 - Pertemps Handicap
Bygones Sovereign @25/1  1point ew
Call The Cops @8/1  2point win


Cheltenham 12th March
2.40 - Ryanair Chase
Foxrock @8/1  1point win
Balder Succes @7/1  2point win
Ma Filleule @5/1  1point win

3.20 - World Hurdle
Saphir Du Rheu @5/1  1point win
Lieutenant Colonel @8/1 1point win


4.00 - Handicap Chase
Darna @33/1  1point win
No Buts @20/1  1point win
Filbert @25/1  1point win

4.40 - Challenge Cup Handicap
Vintage Star @16/1  1point win
Clondaw Knight @18/1  1point win

edit - 2.40 - Ryanair Chase
Johns Spirit @10/1  2point win

thats 4 running for me in the Ryanair, will the King George form hold up? JS ran well in the PP Gold Cup lumping top weight which is the key part of the form and 10/1 is to big the more i look at it. Plenty of runners today, will it go tits up? fingers crossed..
« Last Edit: March 12, 2015, 10:47:20 AM by noble1 »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1211 on: March 12, 2015, 16:56:56 PM »
2 nice winners today :) so the fred total overall currently stands at +260.21 points

i"ll hang fire till the early hours tomorrow to see if it does rain before i make my final picks on gold cup day [get in Road to Riches ;)]

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1212 on: March 13, 2015, 02:07:12 AM »
Cheltenham 13th March
1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
Kalkir @20/1  1point win
Petite Parisienne @9/1  1point win
Hargam @6/1  2point win
Top Notch @7/1  2point win

2.05 - County Handicap
Orgilgo Bay @33/1  1point win
Roman Flight @50/1  1point win
Princely Conn @10/1  2point win
Sort It Out @12/1  2point win

3.20 - Gold Cup http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=6616.msg239700#msg239700
Road To Riches @10/1  2point win
Carlingford Lough @10/1  1point win

my simple logic for the Gold Cup - The horse has to have won a grade 1 chase at Kempton, Cheltenham or Leopardstown. Any older than 10+ and your out, defending ex-champions out, Silviniaco Conti is out [to short plus his course form] and sift through prize money/collateral form etc etc that they have won at those three courses.
That leaves -
Silviniaco Conti 9yo 114k 113k [2x King Georges at Kempton] skinny odds based on course form and he"s out

Lord Windermere 9yo 327k 85k [1x Gold Cup  1xRSA Chase] defending champ, in the Gold Cup's history only seven horses have won more than once since the  Gold Cup chase, as we now know it, was introduced in 1924.
They are - Easter Hero 1929/30 , Golden Miller 1932/33/34/35/36 , Cottage Rake 1948/49/50 , Arkle 1964/65/66 , L"Escargot 1970/71 , Best Mate 2002/03/04 , Kauto Star 2007/09 the only horse to ever regain the Gold Cup.
at this moment in time i"d have to be bonkers to think Lord Windermere is as good as that group, so based on him being the defending champ, he"s out

Bobs Worth 10yo 313k 75k [1x Gold Cup 1x Lexus] trying to regain the Gold Cup, ten years old and he"s out

Carlingford Lough 9yo 66k [1x Irish Hennessy Gold Cup] won lto McCoy riding a plus. Jodami and Imperial Call in 93 and 96 are the last two to have won both the GC and the Hen in the same year which isn"t a great record but in terms of the open nature to this years GC then it gives him a lively chance imho.

Road To Riches 8yo 75k [1x Lexus] 5 out of the last 9 Gold Cup winners have contested the Lexus Chase, since winning the Galway Plate he"s improved tons. He"s won two grade ones in softer than ideal conditions, he"s best on good ground imo which makes it the more impressive what he"s done this season.

Boston Bob is the only other grade one winner at Aintree and Punchestown but he"s ten years old, Cool Dawn back in 98 was the last 10yo to win. If the likes of Denman and Kauto Star failed to win the GC at 10yo+ then i"d think you"d be fairly safe putting a line through Bob :)

Of the rest - Coneygree after he won the Denman Chase at Newbury last month has been described by Phil Smith the head of handicapping as putting in the best performance at 3m by a novice since Gloria Victis. ? ? ? ? ? thats enough question marks ;D  Phil Smith goes on to rate Coneygree 5lbs better as a novice than what Denman did in the RSA in 07.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=764676#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form
he beat Houblon Des Obeaux who is rated 161 over the sticks?? really?? i shall cut off my left testicle with blunt scissors if Coneygree is on par with Denman as a novice [please peruse http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=633710#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form]

i won"t and don"t want to start on about Many Clouds and Djakadam and there current odds which are a joke..

good luck today everyone.


« Last Edit: March 13, 2015, 04:18:58 AM by noble1 »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1213 on: March 13, 2015, 13:30:49 PM »
« Last Edit: March 13, 2015, 13:52:59 PM by noble1 »

noble1

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Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #1214 on: March 13, 2015, 15:34:20 PM »
i am now attempting to cut my left testicle off with some blunt scissors :o