Poker Forum > Strategy
What would You Do ??????
lucasj37:
--- Quote from: Mikeyboy9361 on May 04, 2012, 08:43:05 AM ---
I know what you are saying about thinning the field, but AK OOP in these cash games can land you in very expensive tricky positions, just like this. That is why flatting was definitely an option. As played I think you pretty much have to lead out, and fold to any raise, but hope to see a cheap turn and river!
--- End quote ---
This, why bloat the pot OOP with a drawing hand. See a cheap flop while disguising your hand. Now you have to c bet almost pot committing yourself with Ace high.
As played i don"t think he ever folds to a shove on the turn. Floating is pretty rare in these games, most are playing snap or just pressing buttons with too much beer inside of them.
AAroddersAA:
My thoughts and the EV Calculation, I really don"t know what I am supposed to do on this turn, the options seem to be shove or check/fold. I can"t put this guy on any kind of sensible range though based on what I know and how he has been playing it seems REALLY polarized, is it?
Our hand is AdKd and the board reads:-
2s-4c-Qd-Td
So we have the following outs to the nut"s
3d, 5d, 6d, 7d, 8d, 9d, Jd, Js, Jc, Jh
So as posted above 10 clean outs to the nut"s 2d and 4d may also make us the best hand a lot of the time but don"t give us the nuts.
I know what he actually has in this hand but I don"t know how to construct a range as his play is really strange. He has called a preflop 3-bet when we look really strong and a flop bet so it looks like he is meant to have something. On the flop there are no draws at all so he must have some sort of made hand. If it is a massive hand like a set, the board is so dry there is no need for him to raise as the board is so dry and AK is in our range (maybe AQ as well) or we have AA or KK so he does not need to raise the flop. Could he also be floating to see what we do on the turn? At the time this just seems really unlikely as our range should be super strong and he should know this, why has he not just gone away, he can"t expect us to fold AA or KK on the turn. So what the hell is his range?
Preflop to call the 3-bet I have him fairly wide, maybe any pair and suited connectors. We can even add broadway hands if we want, although he should not be calling with these as out range must dominate them all. He knows we are not 3-betting with air on this table, AK is probably bottom of our range. Then we get a super dry flop AA or KK is quite happy to get it in on that flop and he will know this. We fire out and he calls, WHAT CAN CALL?
Well a set should call here (I think)
JJ and QQ might call and see the turn - although QQ would be more likely to 4-bet pre on this table
Maybe there are a few AT and KT like hands in his range although there shouldn"t be JT and T9 should fold I think.
I don"t think he has AA or KK as they should have 4-bet pre as he has the loose calling station player still in (I think)
I can only put him on a set, and overpair. Or air doing some weird float play, which actually makes no sense. His range must be
22, 44, TT, JJ or QQ or some kind of really weird float/bluff after he calls the flop.
The Q is a bad card as it makes a set for QQ and that now beats AA or KK so he is only folding bluffs and JJ to our shove.
Our hand combinations are as follow"s
22 = 3 combos
44 = 3 combos
TT = 3 combos
JJ = 6 combos
QQ = 3 combos
so 12 hands he can call with and 6 hands he folds. Therefore our fold equity is 33% (ignoring the possibility of weird bluffs)
when we get called we have 10 outs against his range so get called 67% of the time and win the pot 20% of the time that we get called.
So in total we get called and win the pot 13.5% of the time
We get called and lose the pot 53.5% of the time
so from out spot on the turn we lose £88 53.5% of the time
We win £127 33% of the time
We win £215 13.5% of the time
53.5*88 = -£4708
33*127 = £4191
13.5*215 = £2902
so £4191+£2902-£4708 = £2385
£23.85/100 = £23.85
So Shoving the turn shows a profit of £23.85 if my range is right and if we remove any bluffs from his range but include JJ.
Noble (or anybody)???? How much sense does this make? Am I anyway near the right way of thinking when putting all this together? Have I left any hands out of his range? Should we include AA and KK (if we do it becomes more profitable to shove).
Mikeyboy9361:
So what did he have?
deanp27:
3bet pre but no need to make £30 etc, I prefer a bit smaller even though it"s live cash as we are not super deep. You don"t have to CB 100% of flops as the preflop aggressor and I would check here but not necessarily fold.
Personally think calling pre here is a recipe for disaster
AAroddersAA:
You don"t have to c-bet all flops but this one is a c-bet.
He has 99.
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