Poker Forum > Strategy
Hand from Today, what is best now?
AAroddersAA:
My thinking at the time was that he almost certainly does not have 55 and I have blockers to the other sets. His pure odds to set mine are not that far off though. I am playing 140BB and he covers me. I tend to look for about 16/1.
At the moment there is $1.55 in the middle and I have $13.19 in my stack. giving him about 13.5/1 to from that point of view it is not a terrible spot to set mine. The problem with cold calling with 55 here is that the player behind can re-open the action. I don"t think he does so without QQ+ but it is not impossible. I expected him to mostly fold though tbh and the SB would expect him too as well you would think. The other problem is I am not really 3-betting a tight range in this spot. I can three bet much lighter than this so I am not sure how good his implied odds actually are.
Calling with 55 here sounds like a bad play as it is -EV - he can have 55 here though and with the blockers it could be the most likely of the sets. Calling with JJ is a perfectly good play if he intends to get it in on a flop that comes all undercards against me. Calling with KK might be OK as well actually as 4-betting this spot would give away the strength of the hand. He could also have AA for this reason.
AMRN:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on January 01, 2013, 23:14:59 PM ---
My thinking at the time was that he almost certainly does not have 55 and I have blockers to the other sets. His pure odds to set mine are not that far off though. I am playing 140BB and he covers me. I tend to look for about 16/1.
At the moment there is $1.55 in the middle and I have $13.19 in my stack. giving him about 13.5/1 to from that point of view it is not a terrible spot to set mine. The problem with cold calling with 55 here is that the player behind can re-open the action. I don"t think he does so without QQ+ but it is not impossible. I expected him to mostly fold though tbh and the SB would expect him too as well you would think. The other problem is I am not really 3-betting a tight range in this spot. I can three bet much lighter than this so I am not sure how good his implied odds actually are.
Calling with 55 here sounds like a bad play as it is -EV - he can have 55 here though and with the blockers it could be the most likely of the sets. Calling with JJ is a perfectly good play if he intends to get it in on a flop that comes all undercards against me. Calling with KK might be OK as well actually as 4-betting this spot would give away the strength of the hand. He could also have AA for this reason.
--- End quote ---
thing is, you"ve clearly thought this through objectively, but I suspect you probably give the guy too much credit. In a zoom scenario, particularly if I"m playing 4 tables, I doubt I would ever fold a pair getting 13/1 implied, particularly in a 3 way pot where the implied could potentially be even higher.
I don"t think it"s reasonable to exclude 55 from his range.
TheSnapper:
--- Quote from: AMRN on January 02, 2013, 09:12:16 AM ---
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thing is, you"ve clearly thought this through objectively, but I suspect you probably give the guy too much credit. In a zoom scenario, particularly if I"m playing 4 tables, I doubt I would ever fold a pair getting 13/1 implied, particularly in a 3 way pot where the implied could potentially be even higher.
I don"t think it"s reasonable to exclude 55 from his range.
--- End quote ---
Might be interesting to look through your HM database Steve.
I have just looked through a 25k hand sample and filtered as follows.....
main filter/ position: / preflop action facing player / hole cards (HE) / filter by actions / preflop actions < select:call>
137 hands qualify and show a 45.4 bb"s/100 profit. (must be running good ;D ;D)
we can then change the preflop action filter to and see what % if any we fold in this spot, it is important because against a loose aggro oop we will be folding the best hand often or even worse guess calling flop & turn maybe even river.
26 hands were folded which is 26/(26+137)*100 = ~16%
As a general rule, if you dont feel its a spot where you can miss your set yet still win the pot, then folding is probably best.
AAroddersAA:
Fatcatstu:
Not a bad guess from me eh :p
Like I said you you before mate, we should be folding this pretty easily, but I still probably call then beat myself up after as I don"t hit the house :p
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