Poker Forum > Strategy

AQ 15x CO facing min open by unknown older gentleman always a ship?

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WYoung83:
I think he can fold a lot of his opening range to a 15 bbs shove, and even if called, we still have a premium hand, its 2013 remember, not 2006

Zozzy:
Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.

AAroddersAA:

--- Quote from: Zozzy on February 06, 2013, 23:17:28 PM ---
Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.

--- End quote ---

Hi Craig

Can you explain this a bit please as to be honest I don"t understand. I know I would be folding quite a bit of my opening range to a 15x shove in this spot, there is really nothing else you can do. What do you think his open range is here? If we have enough info to know that he is only opening VERY tight and is never going to fold then AQ becomes marginal.  In reality though we often get called by worse and by hands we are racing with. We are only crushed by premium hands here, are we saying that he is only opening with premiums?

pokerpops:
As a member of the 55-60 demographic let me shed some light on our range for opening a pot from the hijack in this situation.

But first, this is NOT an "old man". 55-60 represents the prime of our lives, the time when our experience allows us to know how to go about things and our age doesn"t prevent us from continuing to do them. 55-60 old? pffftttt!!!!


I"m going to assume that the table generally is competent. I"m also thinking that 20BB may well be pretty close to average?

I"m opening Ax suited, A8o+, any pair, most suited connectors from 89 upwards, suited one gappers from J9 upwards and any two broadway cards. Effectively I"d be raising at least 25% of the time. Possibly as high as 30, (with an above average stack I"d be opening pretty much 100%) but let""s stick with 25% for now.

I"m folding a chunk of that 25% to the shove and although Rodder"s range for calling looks about right, I"d be closer to this without reads or game flow to work on

410,952,960  games     0.037 secs    11,106,836,756  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

             equity    win        tie               pots won       pots tied   
Hand 0:    43.736%     36.18%    07.55%         148698360     31035780.00   { AQs }
Hand 1:    56.264%     48.71%    07.55%         200183040     31035780.00   { 99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }

So, 3 times in 4 I fold to the shove and you increase your stack by around 25% with blinds and antes. (assumes that  the three players still to act all fold.... we don"t know the distribution of stacks around the table so that may not happen)
Once in 4 you get called and are 43% to double up, plus a bit.

The likely actions of the three players still to act on a 7 handed table have to be considered but I don"t think shoving can be bad here vs me, a 55-60 yr "old man", but it feels close...
Probably Shove>Fold>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>flat call


btw - if I do have to fold this time don"t assume that I"m tightening up when I open-shove next time I get this spot...

PRThomas:
Of course I 3 bet jammed it, without too much thinking, will 3 bet ship here basically every time. 100% vs unknowns with 15x. And of course he calls with KK, i"d like to say he snap called, but actually he had a mini dwell, which excited me obviously. Board runs out QQXXK...famoosh. Always a fun run out.

Good to hear the input of others here. Seems a good forum for discussion.

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