Poker Forum > Strategy
Live spot v Rodders from Coventry
AAroddersAA:
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 01, 2013, 21:31:33 PM ---
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on July 01, 2013, 21:12:33 PM ---
--- Quote from: Jon MW on July 01, 2013, 20:40:49 PM ---
Aren"t there ante"s in play at this level?
--- End quote ---
Yes, why? ;D
...
--- End quote ---
People talking about a re-shoving stack in terms of 30 bigs. If there are antes then it should be M and I would suspect it would make it easily the right size stack for a reshove. Not that I would in this spot because I don"t think it would give enough fold equity against an utg raise; but the ante"s definitely change the maths and nobody seemed to be taking them in to account.
--- End quote ---
The antes were 100 and I think we were 9 handed
pot was 4600 When Brian had to make his first action and he has circa 32K behind. By shoving he increases his stack by 15%. I would want a 20% increase before shove usually as you are unlikely to be getting exploited by raise/folding here.
If the UTG raiser has a PFR range of 66+, AT+ and KJ+ and will call a shove with AQ+ and TT+ (This would be considered loose for an APAT event and I would consider most APAT players to have a tighter range than this) then the shove gets through uncalled about 58% of the time. So 58% of the time you just win the 4600 that was in the pot.
If you get called which will happen 42% of the time then
****************************************************************************************
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
636,977,088 games 0.000 secs 127,395,417,600 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.794% 62.60% 00.19% 398772156 1210188.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 37.206% 37.02% 00.19% 235784556 1210188.00 { 77 }
****************************************************************************************
So that mean"s
About 26.4% of the time we lose our stack of 32K and are out
About 15.6% of the time we win the pot of 36600 chips and are massive
About 58% of the time we win 4600
=266800 + 570960 - 844800 = -7040
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So against that raising range the shove is marginally -cEV. However for this event I have given our PFR a fairly loose range. There are not a huge number of players who will be opening wider than this on a regular basis from EP. So in MOST spots you should set mine. In this spot? Maybe a shove is not so bad.
We know that UTG has a wider range than the above, or at least he seems too and he is very active from all positions.
He has already gone after our blind with K4o.
Is calling and check folding the flop (which seems to generally be out plan) going to make him want to give up and leave us alone?
If we make a standard 3-bet he is capable of seeing that it is a decent spot to do so and 4-betting light
I am certainly not telling anybody the answer"s on this one to that but this might help the thread. There are some really good responses in the thread but there is a lot more to this hand than people are looking at, it is a really good hand to analyse.
duke3016:
--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on July 01, 2013, 22:43:22 PM ---
Maybe a shove is not so bad.
--- End quote ---
;D
George2Loose:
People are really complicating this spot. It"s really not that tough imo.
We are calling 1bb out of a 30bb stack. Even if we are purely set mining, I"m happy to move on and play my 29bb stack and c/f my hand on a ton of flops even if sometimes we have the best hand.
3 bet folding is just bad. We don"t even have any blockers in our hand and despite Rodders calling this an easy spot for you to exploit by 4 betting light I really don"t see this happening. All we are doing is turning a hand with some reasonable value into a very expensive and costly bluff.
amcgrath1uk:
Call of the initial bet, let the flop play itself. Don"t think there"s much more needed here.
The only time I"d ever think about a reraise is bubble time..
George2Loose:
Also just to tackle those saying let"s shove.
You"re making this a really easy decision for your opponent here as I assume you just 3 bet your strong value hands (AA-QQ, AK) so when you jam essentially you"re turning your hand face up of sorts (ie it"s prob AK or a medium pair)
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