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Turning KK into a bluff on the river?

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noble1:
I don"t mind the check raise bluff, you have the nut blocker plus a good pot/stack ratio.. his bet sizing on the turn + river don"t scream out that he"s betting the strongest parts of his value range..
a word of caution for when you tackle higher stakes or come up against a good hand reader for the current level who"s holding 2pair+ [or even just an ace] you may get called more often than not :) if the villain knows that you never or very rarely slowplay on this type of board texture, then you are opening yourself up to being very exploitable at deep stack sizes, so to get this type of play through enough to be profitable you need to add slowplays into your range until you"re indifferent to slow playing or fast playing.
thus as stacks become deeper, the value of an uncapped range increases because you don"t ideally want to be having a range of hands that just have high and polarized equity.. you need to make sure you have enough speculative hands that add flop/board coverage to your pre 3bet range [as well as you mixing up your slow/fast plays and folding in the right situations post]

figure out your own range in this spot, stove what you would currently 3bet and go through this hand from beginning to end, and every time you make a decision, de-select all the hand combinations which you would not have played that way.. then everything thats left is the range you hold after making this sequence of decisions... its not a bad exercise to work on to get since you should know how you play :)

also do it the other way round and play it out from the villains perspective, add in how you think he perceives your range if you think he"s thinking about that :)

TheSnapper:
Including results in your op makes it very difficult to give unbiased analysis

Swinebag:

--- Quote from: TheSnapper on October 25, 2013, 15:36:19 PM ---
Including results in your op makes it very difficult to give unbiased analysis

--- End quote ---


This

Just delete the bit after villains river bet and ask WDYDN?

Think you played the hand great though. You do need to know your villain when trying to pull this off

Sillbags:
Some excellent feedback guys, thanks. I didn"t post any stats on villain as I think you would need a large hand sample to get accurate fold to river 2bet stats. I think I had about 500 hands on the guy, but even turn play stats were fairly limited. I"ve been playing on average 5k hands a day, so am starting to build up a good sample size on the regs. From my experience I have not seen 1 single river bluff raise at these stakes, it"s always a huge hand. I did infact put myself in the villains shoes when making this river decision and I would have a hard time calling off here without the nuts. Thanks Steve for doing the math on this, and you are quite right that this could be a mathmatical mistake, but if he also believes that river raises can only be the nuts, then surely that sways it, as he is almost never calling?  I didn"t mean to post results Brendan, just copy and pasted hh and never previewed. Noble1, great points about being exploited by better players, and I would never play the nut flush like this on turn or river, although I wouldn"t expect most players at this level to be confident enough to call off light here based on that. I will definitely play around with stove as you suggest.
Not sure I want to play any more APAT tourneys, as you are all too good  ;)

AAroddersAA:

--- Quote from: Charlie44 on October 25, 2013, 12:48:02 PM ---

--- Quote from: AAroddersAA on October 25, 2013, 11:23:44 AM ---

There is $32.25 to win and we are risking $27.30 to win it so he has to fold 46% of the time for us to make money.



--- End quote ---


Nice post Steve. I think I got my analysis completely wrong. In hindsight I agree he probs calls 3 bet much wider range, and raises sets here.

Just a small point I think he risks 38.30 here to win 32.25 so villain has to fold 54% of time. Of course this does not contradict situation from villain"s point of view which is he has to call 27.30 to win 70.55 so only needs to be right just 27.8% of time to be profitable.

--- End quote ---

Sorry yes you are right I had taken the $11 off the total that opponent had already put in the pot (I really should stop posting on hands at midnight lol). This actually makes quite a big difference though, realistically although all of the points made here are great ones I don"t think you get anywhere near enough folds to make this profitable. The logic is good, but without a really good read it is not going to happen often enough.  

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