Poker Forum > Strategy
For Your Amusement
Jon MW:
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 10, 2008, 12:45:19 PM ---
...
equity - 6.26 comes from the 5.26 to 1 odds u were getting on the turn , u add 5.26 to the 1 = 6.26 then to work out your equity you divide 1 by the 6.26 which equals 15.97%
...
--- End quote ---
5.26 to 1 odds is a ratio
3950/750 is a fraction
3950/750 = 4.26:1 (work out your "equity" from that)
or you could just stick with -
it costs 750 to call, the pot is 3950
So your pot odds are 750/3950 = 0.18987 or 18.987%
Or you could say 750 is approximately 1/5th of 3750 therefore its probably about 19%
My outs are 11 hearts, 2 6"s and a 2, 44 cards left
Therefore my odds of winning (specifically what I thought my odds of winning were, because I had foolishly discounted the fact he was playing from the SB) are:
15/44 = 0.3409 or 34.09% (or 15 x 2.2 = 33%)
But even if I knew what he had I still had 11 hearts and a 2
12/44 = 0.2727 or 27.27% (or 12 x 2.2 = 26.4%)
Obviously he could have surprised me, if a third heart had come he might still have called my all in - but if I was playing to bluff I would have raised on the flop, and if I was playing with a made hand I would have raised - the only hand that it made sense that I was playing was a flush draw (or a slow played set - either of us could have been doing that).
So whichever way you look at it, the percentage chance to win is larger than the percentage you have to contribute i.e. pot odds - call.
NB: I never said I had 19% chance to win before, I only said I had >19% chance.
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 10, 2008, 12:45:19 PM ---
...
i"ve been going through a lot of my friends mtt hand histories recently who has just started playing at poker and he plays the 1 and 2$ mtts on stars, one thing i have noticed going through them is the weak play and calling light on the river ...
--- End quote ---
But I"m not talking generally, I"m talking specifically about players I"ve played all the way to the bubble with - that takes a while, and it takes a lot of hands.
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 10, 2008, 12:45:19 PM ---
... but i do find it intresting how u discount all those hands for some1 in the small blind when it only costs them 125 chips to see a flop with a 8000+ chip stack,...
--- End quote ---
Not widening his hand range because he was in the small blind was my mistake, but he wasn"t just automatically making up the small blind every round - there was still a fairly tight range he was playing. If he had been automatically making up the small blind every round, I would certainly hope that I would have spotted his much wider range from the SB - but as it was he only had a slightly wider range (which I didn"t spot).
--- Quote from: noble1 on October 10, 2008, 12:45:19 PM ---
... but looking at his bet pattern, weak lead flop check raise turn ... those hands i give him are quite reasonable for his position in the hand and how quite a lot of players at this level play them....
--- End quote ---
again I would refer you to the fact that I wasn"t calculating this for "...quite a lot of players at this level...", but for a specific one.
Roscopiko:
I refer to the title of this thread!
I am not amuzed, i am bemuzed! Odds smods u won and had fun, move on!
Jon MW:
;)
Swinebag:
lets get ready to rumble
In the blue corner, representing rags, we have the master of disaster, the jazz with the Razz, The british cowboy
JOOOOOOOOOOONEMMMMMMMMMDOUBLEYOOOOOOO
In the red corner, representing correct mathematical poker theory, we have the pokerbot, undefeated
ROWWWBOWWWWNOWWWWWBLE1
Heads up for Rollz
Roscopiko:
^^ :o :o ^^
Anyone got too much time on their hands lol
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