Poker Forum > Strategy
Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?
AMRN:
--- Quote from: JamieCarra on November 27, 2009, 16:45:54 PM ---
I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here. Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful
--- End quote ---
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
noble1:
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 27, 2009, 17:32:06 PM ---
--- Quote from: JamieCarra on November 27, 2009, 16:45:54 PM ---
I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here. Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful
--- End quote ---
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
--- End quote ---
basically what AMRN is saying we are 33.8% versus a set - not a nice situation kinboshi,the line u took and the action behind suggests strongly at least one player having a set [even more so with card removal - AKdd] and now you have pretty much zero fold equity imo and a nice 9000 ish stack behind in what looks like level 2 of the blinds?
i"ll be interested how others would proceed here.
mal666:
We have 1 to a royal. How can we possibly fold?
George2Loose:
Love the lead out.
Shove now
noble1:
--- Quote from: kinboshi on November 27, 2009, 14:31:37 PM ---
OK, on a similar theme - here"s a hand I managed to mangle in Luton.
Fairly early on, definitely one of the first two levels. Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself.
I"m the BB with ad kd. Foggy is UTG+1 and puts in a standard raise. the German calls, and I decide to flat call as well (I usually raise here with AK, but like to vary things).
Flop is qd jd 7c. That"s not an altogether bad flop for me :D.
I lead out for about pot (think it was a bet of 400). Foggy raises to 1,200. The German then re-raises to 2,800.
What do you do?
--- End quote ---
the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open ;D i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.
anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?
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