Poker Forum > Strategy
Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?
AMRN:
--- Quote from: deanp27 on November 30, 2009, 10:07:21 AM ---
i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
--- End quote ---
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
MintTrav:
How long have you been coming on this forum, noble? You should know by now that the agreed answer to every situation on here is to shove. Okay, what is the next question?
Marty719:
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 30, 2009, 10:58:20 AM ---
--- Quote from: deanp27 on November 30, 2009, 10:07:21 AM ---
i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
--- End quote ---
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
--- End quote ---
So u fold to the 2800? This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!
AMRN:
--- Quote from: Marty719 on November 30, 2009, 11:03:22 AM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 30, 2009, 10:58:20 AM ---
--- Quote from: deanp27 on November 30, 2009, 10:07:21 AM ---
i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??
--- End quote ---
I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time. The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?
--- End quote ---
So u fold to the 2800? This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!
--- End quote ---
to be honest, in the heat of the moment, with draws to straight, flush, and royal, no I don"t think I can fold.... and as I hate calling, I"m probably shoving. However, sitting here with a calculator, and hours/days to think about it, I think a call or a fold is better than a shove.
deanp27:
i think this is closer than my initial reaction.
however in this spot i feel that shoving>folding>>>>>>>>>>calling. UTG guy should fold a tonne of hands, including aces. It is hard to determine whether german flats QQ/JJ pre but given "aggressive" reads is he not likely to 3bet these pre? This leaves 77/QJ that he is likely to raise/call all in with. Also put AQ in his hands, what does he do here - Dan"s lead/4bet jam is super strong (btw i can"t see anyone folding bottom set in this spot).
i think calling the 2800 would be a huge mistake and put you in a terrible spot.
I still think you have enough FE to make this work.
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