Poker Forum > Strategy
Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?
Marty719:
Yea I think shove>fold>call 100%
It would suck flatting the 2800 on the flop and then just check folding the turn!! Gives opponents a chance to get away from some hands if scare cards come on turn as well.
Not sure how German perceived Foggy which I guess wud affect his 3-bet range pre.
If German is folding QJ then thr is def a decent amount of f/e.
deanp27:
i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
Marty719:
--- Quote from: deanp27 on November 30, 2009, 11:22:24 AM ---
i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
--- End quote ---
Well what range do u think Kinboshi is shoving?
JamieCarra:
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 27, 2009, 17:32:06 PM ---
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
--- End quote ---
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
--- Quote from: noble1 on November 28, 2009, 06:36:04 AM ---
the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open ;D i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.
anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?
--- End quote ---
The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ. Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ. Pretty sure he"ll be folding overpairs to a shove here
--- Quote from: deanp27 on November 30, 2009, 11:22:24 AM ---
i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t
--- End quote ---
I"m pretty sure I"d be folding QJ in the spot against anyone but an absolute nutcase!
AMRN:
--- Quote from: JamieCarra on November 30, 2009, 13:02:17 PM ---
--- Quote from: AMRN on November 27, 2009, 17:32:06 PM ---
It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.
Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.
--- End quote ---
Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.
--- End quote ---
No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four 10s, and seven diamonds (7 no good)... so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn
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