Poker Forum > Strategy
Bomb out....how would others approach?
Swinebag:
Most of the time, I"m shipping all in here with my stack size
two factors have me folding this one pre though
1. limping ITM is acceptable here as you satted in and the min cash is a great return on your satty fee
2. Your read of UTG+1 has you flipping at best here (maybe AJ if you are v lucky). He also is calling a shove most (95-99%) of the time.
good run. ul. you need to win your races in tourneys and sometimes they are unavoidable. Win this one and you min cash and some maybe.
WYoung83:
yes marty, iv just had a good look at it and you right. if you are repoping then you cant really get away from it when he shoves, but that is the reason for a bigger repop of 4x initial raise. With the 88, villan knows he is either flipping, or way behind......(and my mum has just fallen down the stairs right now so i have to go and check on her)
Marty719:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 12, 2010, 17:23:46 PM ---
--- Quote ---Button 16k Moi
SB 35k
BB 11k
--- End quote ---
--- Quote ---If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV
--- End quote ---
quite how we put villain on such a wide range at his stack size is beyond me with only that we have seen make him 2 calls with 99 and AJ , with no other showdowns being mentioned plus the term solid all adds upto ??? wtf
To much assumption me thinks - When we put all our eggs into one basket by making a very precise, possibly incorrect deduction about an opponent"s cards, and when we base our betting decisions on that deduction, we front-load the difficulty of poker onto our (flawed) ability to extract (incomplete) information from a (loosely-wired) poker situation.
Our job is to play in such a way as to maximize our EV not against the single most-likely hand, but against the range of plausible hands an opponent could hold.With only the position he has raised from and his stack size to assume such a wide range is just plain BAD...Also with the call happy SB and a short stack BB then this makes the assumption that villains range is wide even worse imho...Add in the two players behind with call ranges of TT+ AK+ then at best imo everyone folds to a shove 28% of the time,this is not cEV+ thus how on earth we can think its mEV+ to race now ""to increase our chances of winning"" is ?????
--- End quote ---
Im not assigning him the range - OP does in his 2nd post. If he opens s/c then shoving has to be good?
noble1:
i"m not meaning to quote u marty but op , i just think that Sugarnes without or with little info to go by would find it better to assign a narrow range rather than a wide one till proven otherwise given villains stack size/position and opponent stack sizes.
--- Quote --- But my mindset changed shortly into the tournament and I was much more focussed on better MTT play and not playing scared poker - something I"m a general expert at (great at doubling my money at $5-10 entries!) and want to change this year.
--- End quote ---
Variance can be a bitch in mtts, sometimes you can find yourself up in profit but just be on the upside of it.Playing MTTs is a matter of breaking even until you hit that big score mostly imho and as long as you make the best decisions for each situation then u cant go far wrong, laying AQ down is not scared poker as everything is ""it depends"" in poker it is very situational, being able to fold pre and post can be a good thing you know. :)
Marty719:
--- Quote from: Sugarnes on January 12, 2010, 15:47:13 PM ---
I think he raises initially on a wide range (low pairs mid-high suited connectors) - I may underestimate the importance he puts on position but I think the table dynamic says a raise is getting through a lot of the time and I"m stretching a bit but I do think his going quiet period was more about his potential spots being picked off rather than him changing pace and being a rock. His shove range is much smaller I would probably include AJ,KQs but my gut said his deliberation was a genuine marginal decision (i.e. not pausing for effect with AA, KK or slow-playing for time with rags) and most of the time I was calling to race.
--- End quote ---
^^Wide range assigned by OP who has taken time to analyse villains actions and observe his play^^
If he has AJ KQ type hands in his range then its an even better shoving scenario for us. If villain is opening a lot then I doubt he is calling w/ his entire range. Even if he opens A10+ KQ and all pp"s - I find it hard to believe he stacks off with all these hands and doesnt lay down a good % this close to the bubble. ESP given OP"s tight image at the table.
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