Poker Forum > Strategy
Hand 111 from 'winning poker tourneys one hand at a time'
shozboy1:
The flop decision:
Flop is 8c 5c 2c. Pot is 375.
"This is a great flop for my hand since I am basically racing against his calling range. Even against a tight range of 88+ AKc AQc I have 48.5% equity. Throw in single club AK and AQ combinations and my equity increases to just over 49%. He"ll also fold a large % of the time I raise. Its clear I"m going nowhere in this hand. I raise his cbet to 800 and he insta shoves. I call.
So my own thoughts are he"s turned this into a pure maths decision. He"s assigned the tight player a range, and decided against his entire range he"s basically flipping after the flop is dealt. To me the players insta 4bet shove on the flop indicates massive strength, but clearly Apestyles has already decided he"s flipping with the RANGE of the villain, so calls, and decides he would call before the villain ever 4bet shoved - based on the maths. Is my interpretation correct?
TheSnapper:
Every decision in poker, ultimately, is maths. The big part is assigning accurate ranges, that"s what the top players do consistently well. They feed their intuitive feel for this away from the table by running spots through pokerstove and confirming or disproving their in play decisions were + EV.
Marty719:
I can"t help feeling he ran into the bottom of villains range.
deanp27:
--- Quote from: Marty719 on February 26, 2010, 07:16:16 AM ---
I can"t help feeling he ran into the bottom of villains range.
--- End quote ---
well he did. That"s for sure
but there are still plenty of other hands out there that we are flipping with AcKx etc that he aint gonna fold that would make raise/folding this flop a mistake imo.
As an aside i played an almost exact hand in the DTD Monte Carlo event where i had Jacks on a 8 high monotone board vs a tight EP raiser ( i had the J hi flush draw) the flop went check/check and i then got two streets of decent value when the board ran out all low and no 4 flush (had TT with flush draw lol). Cos we were deep i think raising at any point would overrep the strength of my hand and would probably not be optimal.
shozboy1:
But Marty, isn"t it irrelevant that he ran into the bottom of the range this time? Against the whole range he was flipping so called (I havent done the pot odd calc but assume the odds were there to make the flop all in call). Next time he may make the same "correct" decision but run into AcAd
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