Poker Forum > Strategy
How do we maximise value here?
noble1:
--- Quote from: jbworldwide on October 12, 2010, 15:03:47 PM ---
I would lead here as well, just from that action his hand feels like AK or QQ, either way you are probably going to stack him with these cards.
I would lead the flop about 30k which feels like a good sized cont bet. If he has it he will prob raise to defend against a flush, he may even jam a flush draw. You are trying to induce a jam here with a 30k bet he can"t really call into an 80k pot if he has something he will jam. Also by leading out here you do disguise your hand to a certain degree as a flopped set will be checked a lot of the time to induce a bluff.
Don"t rely on someone else to build the pot for you.
If he flats and the turn is a dud, all in.
If he flats and turn us diamond, I don"t think I"m folding here, if he does gave 2 diamonds, AJ, A10 or even J10 then well fished sir!
Either way it"s all going in on the turn.
--- End quote ---
with AMRN holding 2 kings i would not really expect to see AK to much , likewise AT or JT with such a low 3bet %
just to add to my previous reply if the flop goes check check then i would 1/2 pot turn...
AMRN:
Everyone talks about a half pot c-bet, but I don"t really see what this achieves.
Think about stack sizes - the effective stack size at start of hand is my 120k.
25k went in pre, leaving 95k behind.
Pot is 56k
Half pot c-bet of 28k makes pot 84k, and leaves me 67k behind
If he shoves, pot will be 84k + 28k + 67k (effective) = 179k
For me the equation would then be call 67k to win 179k
Mouth knows I have a hand of some reasonable strength - he knows I"m never going away for those odds if he were to shove over a half pot c-bet.
So, I don"t think the half pot c-bet does maximise value unless he has a made hand that he wants to commit to.
As for his range...
AA? doubtful. He"s been really aggressive (42/22), but also pretty straight forward with it - he is unlikely to flat with AA, at least not against the other big stack at the table - he will want it all in pre.
QQ? Feasible
AK/KQ? unlikely - I can see three Kings.
Ax? unlikely - he"s better than that.
JJ or lower pair - highly likely.
So, if I c-bet half pot, the only realistic hand I will get paid off by is QQ, and that range is far too narrow to guarantee getting paid by betting.
In my opinion, given the action so far, and my previous history on the table, checking exudes uber-strength. It also gives him chance to control pot size by checking behind, but I want to get all in here.
Shove? Given everything said above, not much different between shoving and c-betting half pot, considering stack sizes.... but again, his calling range is too narrow.
C-bet smaller than half pot? Gives him the opportunity to bluff - the pot and stack sizes may imply a little fold equity (in his mind). Small donk bet may also look like a defensive probing lead out.
I think there"s more to consider than the usual standard c-bet half pot, or check hoping to raise.
jbworldwide:
Shoving just seems wrong in this spot, you seem to take issue with a cont bet though, you want him to shove at best, call next best, fold worst. If he has the top end of the range he shoves, any lower pair he may call, anything else he prob folds. The flop is horrible for JJ lower, he might call to catch.
You don"t want to check him into the turn either, and as I said you don"t want to rely on him to build the pot for you.
It is hard to analyse because I don"t know his patterns to best induce the shove and I"m not used to using stats to determine action
noble1:
--- Quote from: AMRN on October 12, 2010, 15:39:18 PM ---
Everyone talks about a half pot c-bet, but I don"t really see what this achieves.
Think about stack sizes - the effective stack size at start of hand is my 120k.
25k went in pre, leaving 95k behind.
Pot is 56k
Half pot c-bet of 28k makes pot 84k, and leaves me 67k behind
If he shoves, pot will be 84k + 28k + 67k (effective) = 179k
For me the equation would then be call 67k to win 179k
Mouth knows I have a hand of some reasonable strength - he knows I"m never going away for those odds if he were to shove over a half pot c-bet.
So, I don"t think the half pot c-bet does maximise value unless he has a made hand that he wants to commit to.
As for his range...
AA? doubtful. He"s been really aggressive (42/22), but also pretty straight forward with it - he is unlikely to flat with AA, at least not against the other big stack at the table - he will want it all in pre.
QQ? Feasible
AK/KQ? unlikely - I can see three Kings.
Ax? unlikely - he"s better than that.
JJ or lower pair - highly likely.
So, if I c-bet half pot, the only realistic hand I will get paid off by is QQ, and that range is far too narrow to guarantee getting paid by betting.
In my opinion, given the action so far, and my previous history on the table, checking exudes uber-strength. It also gives him chance to control pot size by checking behind, but I want to get all in here.
Shove? Given everything said above, not much different between shoving and c-betting half pot, considering stack sizes.... but again, his calling range is too narrow.
C-bet smaller than half pot? Gives him the opportunity to bluff - the pot and stack sizes may imply a little fold equity (in his mind). Small donk bet may also look like a defensive probing lead out.
I think there"s more to consider than the usual standard c-bet half pot, or check hoping to raise.
--- End quote ---
Now i"m not there Steve so all in all you should have a better insight as to how he proceeds with his range, i wouldn"t read to much into his PFR% , the important stat/read is that he is pretty selective in his 3betting, i wouldn"t totally rule out AA in his 4betting flat range as from what you describe then is it possible he feels your range maybe wide"ish??
Its all down to what you feel his 4bet flat range is imho, if he has flatted AA then he has just had the worst flop :) likewise JJ TT which are most likely to fold or hope for a cheap showdown.. If you cbet 1/2 ish at least it puts AK in your range and AA may flat and maybe QQ, would he flat an underpair expecting you to cbet your whole range? all on your image i guess... tbh with villains 5% 3bet stat all i can see him holding are AA QQ JJ TT maybe AQs and you checking doesn"t necessarily exude strength as if for say villain holds QQ then would he not think you would check AA on a flop texture like this in a 4bet pot?? hence a check call line or cbet flop depending on how you think your image/how wide your 4bet range is perceived by villain.
George2Loose:
mouth is a she- Caroline cove
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