Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012
noble1:
--- Quote from: noble1 on January 29, 2011, 15:48:02 PM ---
i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed :)
--- End quote ---
--- Quote ---
Didn"t see it unfortunately.
What"s your opinion, does he look good enough to beat Bucks ?
Thinking about laying it off now.
--- End quote ---
hmmm theoretically when it comes to trading we should assess the current price of the horse and decide whether it still represents value. If we think it does, then arguably we should be putting more money on it, not laying-off.
Depends on your bet size and your betting bank Leigh [if u have one :)], if your not used to long losing sequences or u want to grow your bank in a slow safe manner then trading now would be ok imho... If it was me i"d let it ride and trade in running for a small profit/small loss breakeven if things look gloomy come the day, ground/going is the key Leigh, will Grand Crus go on good or firmer? imho he"ll go on it but his action looks more suited to a softer going, meh it makes the World Hurdle look a lot more interesting now, Big Bucks has a contender now.... :)
noble1:
Grand Crus in the Cleeve Hurdle - press [< on the player to view the parade etc...
http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,415922_3,00.html
noble1:
Once upon a time there was a race called the Jewson Novice Handicap Chase, now it is called the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase, this race has been moved from Thursday to the Monday... Just to confuse some, there is now a race on day 3 called the Jewson Novices Chase which is Grade 2 listed to be ran over 2m4f...
Centenary Novices Handicap Chase [last race of day 1]
the key stat is that out of all 6 runnings of this race the 6 winners had won or finished second lto.....
horses with these lto finishes have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and a 1-2 on another......
on the official ratings put a line through the top 7, all the winners have been in the mid and lower end of the weight scale......
only 1 fav has finished 1st out of the 6 races, not a large sample but the other 5 races the favourite did not place at all....
5 out of the 6 winners had all ran once before at Cheltenham......[quite a few horses that enter this race but not all have previous experience at Cheltenham, it may help to discount one from the shortlist]
in the main it may pay to favour horses from your shortlist that are within the top 6 in the betting.....
hopefully this gives a manageable shortlist to work through or you can borrow nosey-p"s lucky? pin :)
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374162&r_date=2005-03-17&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400338&r_date=2006-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424598&r_date=2007-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449565&r_date=2008-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474814&r_date=2009-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499100&r_date=2010-03-18&popup=yes
noble1:
Day 2 begins with a race for amateur jockeys, it is the oldest race at the festival. The mix of novice horses, amateur jockeys and a race which is ran over 4 miles makes this a tough one to predict....
National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup -some pointers which may help.
look for horses that finished in the top 4 lto, 25 out of the last 27 winners have had this stat...
12 of the past 17 winners finished in the top 2..
only two 6 year olds have won in the last 21 runnings, put a line through them and anything younger..
in the last 21 runnings 7 & 8 year olds have won 16 times..
favourites have only won this 3 times in the last 21 years..
put a line through any Paul Nicholls trained horse..
any horse opening up in single figure odds on the day then put a line through it..
put a line through any horse whose jockey has no wins for this racing season 2010/11..
hopefully the above will help pin point a winner from your short list, if in doubt then PM nosey-p and ask to use his lucky? pin :)
Chipaccrual:
Keep it coming Noble.
I"m thinking we"ll run a Cheltenham tipping comp on here. Open to suggestions on format.
Got some good prizes.
APAT merchandise
Drinks from Des
A share in the APAT Horse (No, hang on, we sold that to G Casino Bolton on the weekend ;) )
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