Non Poker Forum > Sports Betting & Discussion
Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012
ThinkerJE:
Top stuff Noble. Thanks for all the stats and video analysis.
Only just getting round to updating my trends for the festival so need to get a move on as it starts 3 weeks today. Unfortunately I have no holiday left so have to be at work. Sky+ and avoiding the internet & radio FTW
noble1:
Four days to go, so i will fly through some stats for the Festival........
Queen Mother Champion Chase
key races -
Tingle Creek Chase
Tied Cottage Chase
2010 Arkle Chase
The Tingle Creek is usually ran at Sandown, but this year was ran at Cheltenham... Horses that ran in the Tingle prior to the Queen Mother have a good record, 8 of the last 10 winners contested this race...
Big Zeb won the Tied Cottage Chase last season before going on to win the QM, just to put a spanner in the works he lost to Golden Silver this year !!
The previous years Arkle winner for the last 12 years has finished 1st or 2nd [10/12] the other 2 finishing 3rd....
Look for horses that have won over 2m2f or are CD winners...
In recent years there is a strong trend for horses rated 160+ and have previously won a grade 1 race in there racing career, 8 of the last 9 winners having done so....
The last 13 winners had no more than 4 races that racing season..
there you go, short "n" sweet.....
noble1:
Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)
In the last 10 runnings French breds have won 5 times, Irish breds have won 4 times.. It maybe worth sticking a line through the rest :)
10 of the last 11 winners were aged under 8....
No horse has won with a OR above 147....
6 of the last 8 winners had won last time out.... [Spirit River last years winner ran in the Totesport Trophy finishing 17th] [last time out winners filled the 1-2-3 in 2009]
Put a line through the favourite, there record is 2 from the last 17....
The Totesport Trophy has been a guide in recent years, horses that contested this race have gone onto win the Coral 3 times in the last 6 years....
5,6 and 7 year olds have won 9 of the last 10 races....
As per usual JP McManus owned horses are ones to watch out for, he does like a horse to be primed for this race with a betting coup in mind.... ;D
noble1:
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Not much in the way of strong trends as this race has only been running since 2005....
5 out of 6 winners of this race had won last time out..
David Pipe has a good record upto now, a winner, 2x2nds and a 3rd in the last 4 years
In all of the 6 races only 6 horses priced less than 10/1 have finished in the top 7 !!!
4/6 winners were in the top 1/3 of the handicap...
Fillies have won 2 out of 6
All 6 winners were beaten in there first 2 hurdle races !!
Sandown CD winners have won 3/4 last runnings [Kayef and Kumbeshwar are the only ones with this stat running this year, of the 2 Scudamore"s could be the dark horse, having just acquired his handicap !! ]
noble1:
Champion Bumper
Irish trained and Irish bred dominate this, put a line through the rest imho..... [Cue Card was Irish bred from King"s Theatre and won at 40/1 last year]
The last 4 winners of this race were all unbeaten previously.....
Last time out winners have won 16/18....
14/18 were in the top 6 of the betting.... [see below - favourites]
Willie Mullins has won this 6 times in the last 14 years, 5 of his winners were once raced 5 year olds !! [Lord Gale and Allure Of Illusion are the Mullins once raced 5 year olds for this year]
In recent times since 95, 4 year olds had a terrible winning record until last year when Cue Card won, but it may pay to stick with the 5 and 6 year olds... [put a line through the 4 year olds :)]
Only 2 favourites have won in the last 10 years....
Put a line through French bred horses....
Five of the last eight winners had no race prior in the calendar year....
Thats the last race of day 2, if you are feeling the crippling effects of Cheltenham then at least on day 3 St. Patricks day, a nice drop or two of Guinness will numb it... :)
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